Creating a Virtual Economic Environment to Simulate and Predict Economic Trend.

A total of 100 people were invited to participate in this experiment. They were evenly divided into ten groups. Within each group, two people formed a small group (one person make decision and the other one for calculation). According to the order of participation, the first ten people were assigned to the treatment, and the remaining ninety people were assigned as the control group.

Based on the existing rules, which you can see in the experimental design, I use three different background as the intervention. The first one is mixed economy, which combines the market economy and the planned economy, it let the government group to introduce policies and the enterprise groups to competition. The second one is market economy. In this setting, the government group will be seen as the bank, the only thing they can do is that issue loans to enterprise groups. And the last one is technological stagnation, the technology trees will be forbidden in this setting.
Ten group will be evenly divide into three different background mods except the first group. The first group will follow the mixed economy as the treatment, this is because the mixed economy is the widest used economy strategy in the world.
And because of peoples have their own tactics as a player, and we may have different situation in the same setting, so each background have three matches to figure out what kind of future they will creating.

2025-05-19

2025-12-30

I will focus on adjusting the detailed issues in the experimental rules to avoid the generation of unreasonable data

I assigned assistants to all the participants to calculate their income and expenditure for each round. These assistants would review the abnormal data after each trial.Then we will adjust the size of the values in the game to balance the game

I will pay attention to the decisions made by all participants in business competition behaviors and the consequences brought about by these decisions

After each experiment, I will review the players' behaviors and discuss the reasons for such decisions and improvement plans

I tring to create new rules as the worldview of the experiment which close to reality world as possible. In this experiment, each participant uses their ability of analysis, bargain, and information collection to be a final monopolist. And we review the hole game to observe the economic trend and to find out the points which can cause the significant economic fluctuation. At the end of game, we discuss the decision the participant made, and try to find the method of optimization.

The main rules are as follows:
1.All participants who play the role of entrepreneur conducted the experiment with the goal of obtaining their own maximum benefits.
2.The role of government administrator should promote urban construction, obtain tax revenue as much as possible, avoid monopoly happen, and only issue one executive order per round.
3.The experiment uses Chinese law as the reference basis. Violators will be punished by the role of government administrator.
4.Any calculation involving an amount will be rounded to the nearest whole number.
5.To ensure fairness, participants are not allowed to communicate privately in the first 30 rounds of the game.
6.Government administrator play the role of banks.
7.The experiment was conducted by five people. Four people played the role of entrepreneurs and one person played the role of the government administrator.
8.The match has a total of several plots. Each plot can have three buildings constructed, and different participant are allowed to build on the same plot.
9.The buildings that can be constructed on the plot include factories, shops, properties and warehouses.
10.The plot is allowed to be bought and sold and priced by the government. However, if the same player occupies all the building slots on the same plot, they will be forced to purchase the plot at a 70% price.
11.If participants build buildings, they will pay rent to the plot owner at 10% of the plot price. If the owner of the plot becomes a participant, the participant can determine the price by themselves.
12.The combination of factories and stores can generate profits. The real estate will return one times the investment amount as a one-time profit after three rounds.
13.After the real estate is completed, the real estate management fee will be obtained as income, and at the same time, the number of plots on the land will be permanently reduced while the real estate exists.
14.All buildings are divided into three levels. The combination of factory and store earns profits at 15%, 25%, and 35% of the land where the store is located in each round, and the construction and upgrade costs are 5%, 10%, and 15% of the land where the building is located.
15.For real estate, construction costs shall be paid at 75%, 100% and 125% of the price of the plot.
16.The owner of any building on the land can carry out demolition, and the demolition prices are classified by grade as 45%, 65%, and 85% of the plot.
17.The transportation distance exists in factories and stores, and the base of the range is three plots, and it rises to the highest level of five plots.
18.The warehouse can serve as a transfer station, with a front and back influence range of 5 plots.
19.Urban residents are not counted. By default, it is considered full employment and full demand.
20.Only one building can be constructed on the plot in each round.
21.The technology tree is divided into four major sections: clothing, food, transportation, and real estate.
22.Each section is divided into three levels. Players need to unlock the goods of the next level from low to high and obtain funds through a certain proportion. The amount of funds obtained is evenly distributed among the players.
23.The time required for upgrading the technology tree is as follows: 10 rounds for primary products, 20 rounds for intermediate products, 30 rounds for advanced products, and 25 rounds for special products.
24. Before the unlocking of the primary products of the technology tree is completed, all players will uniformly sell low-level products, and the price of this product will be 10% of the price of the plot.
25.After unlocking the technology tree, the selling prices of all low-level, medium-level and high-level products will be 15%, 25% and 40% of the land price respectively.
26.There is neutral building on the map: schools. By funding the schools in each round, research acceleration on the technology tree can be obtained.
27.When the technology tree reaches the top level, it will unlock the construction of special items. There is only one for each industry. If one person successfully develops it, others will not be able to develop it, and the progress of the already developed items will be reset to zero.
28.This technology of transportation will further increase the transportable range. The base is 2 grids, with an additional 2 plots for each level up, and the upper limit is 6 plots.29.At the final settlement, the research and development of special products will increase the industry's score by 20% for statistics. Special buildings in the real estate sector account for 30% and increase the overall government's final revenue by 10%.

randomization made by draw

individual(participans)

Yes

10 matching group.
10 subjects participate in one group(one subjects corresponds to one assistants that assisstants help the subjects deal with calculation). In the same group, 4 participants played the role of entrepreneurs, 1 participant played the role of a government official, and 5 participants acted as assistants.

100 subjects will be evenly distributed among 10 matchong groups.

10 matching group