Family, Gender, and Ideology: How Neoconservative Framing Shapes Fertility Choices- Experimental Evidence from a Representative Sample of Young Italians

Last registered on May 27, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Family, Gender, and Ideology: How Neoconservative Framing Shapes Fertility Choices- Experimental Evidence from a Representative Sample of Young Italians
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016080
Initial registration date
May 23, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
May 27, 2025, 7:17 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Italy
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Natalia Montinari
Affiliation
Università degli Studi di Bologna
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Francesca Barigozzi
PI Affiliation
Università degli Studi di Bologna
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Giovanni Righetto
PI Affiliation
Università degli Studi di Bologna
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Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2025-04-28
End date
2025-06-30
Keywords
Behavior, Gender
Additional Keywords
Fertility intentions, Gender norms, Framing effects, Neoconservatism, Social norms, survey experiment, Gender ideology
JEL code(s)
J13, J16, C83, Z13
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We examine the interplay between fertility choices, gendered perceptions of fertility determinants, and the influence of neoconservative framing. Using a representative sample of the Italian population aged 19–39 (N=2,500), stratified by gender, age group, education, geographical area, and municipality size, we elicit fertility attitudes and intentions across multiple dimensions.
To identify causal effects, respondents are first randomly assigned to one of two framing conditions: a neoconservative frame emphasizing the protection of traditional family values and national identity, or a neutral frame highlighting the economic consequences of declining birth rates. After exposure to the frame, we collect detailed measures of fertility ideals, fertility intentions, and perceptions of the factors influencing fertility decisions for oneself, for individuals of the same gender, and for individuals of the opposite gender.
At the societal level, using a set of incentivized questions, we explore how fertility rates are perceived to relate to women's labor market participation and the gendered division of household chores, depending on respondents’ individual characteristics. At the individual level, participants evaluate the importance of factors such as economic stability, career compatibility, relationship stability, childcare access, family expectations, and broader societal concerns.
In addition, we elicit a rich set of background information, including respondents’ occupational status, income, political views, religiosity, values, and opinions about gender roles, women's rights, abortion, and perceptions of fairness and trust in public institutions.
Our design allows us to test three key hypotheses: (1) whether men and women differ in the importance they attribute to fertility-related factors; (2) whether misperceptions exist regarding the fertility priorities of their own as well as the opposite gender; and (3) whether exposure to a neoconservative framing systematically shifts fertility intentions and factor prioritization relative to a neutral context.
By integrating experimental variation with rich attitudinal and background measures, our study provides novel evidence on the psychological, social, and ideological foundations of fertility choices in contemporary Italy.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Barigozzi, Francesca, Natalia Montinari and Giovanni Righetto. 2025. "Family, Gender, and Ideology: How Neoconservative Framing Shapes Fertility Choices- Experimental Evidence from a Representative Sample of Young Italians." AEA RCT Registry. May 27. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16080-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
The intervention consists of a survey-based framing experiment designed to test how ideological narratives influence fertility-related attitudes and intentions. Participants are randomly assigned to one of two framing conditions before answering a battery of questions on fertility:
The treatment group is exposed to a neoconservative frame, which presents declining birth rates as a threat to traditional family values and national identity. The control group receives a neutral frame, focusing instead on the economic consequences of low fertility (e.g., pension sustainability). After exposure to the frame, all respondents complete a structured set of modules eliciting: i) Fertility ideals (number of children desired under ideal conditions), ii) Fertility expectations (realistic number of children expected), iii) Short-term fertility intentions, and
iv) Perceived importance of various fertility determinants, both for themselves and for people of the same and opposite gender.
The intervention is embedded within a broader survey administered to a representative sample of 2,500 Italian adults aged 19–39. This design allows us to test whether exposure to ideologically charged narratives influences fertility priorities and expectations across gender lines.
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2025-04-28
Intervention End Date
2025-06-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The primary outcomes of interest include:
1) Fertility intentions – Respondents’ short-term plans regarding having children (e.g., plans to have a child within the next three years).
2) Fertility ideals – The ideal number of children respondents would like to have under ideal life circumstances.
3) Perceived importance of fertility determinants – Ratings of how important various factors (e.g., financial stability, partner relationship quality, career compatibility, access to childcare, societal expectations) are in shaping fertility decisions. These are measured separately for:
i) The respondent themself, ii) Individuals of the same gender, iii) Individuals of the opposite gender. These outcomes are analyzed across framing conditions (neoconservative vs. neutral), controlling for respondent characteristics (e.g., gender, age, education, political orientation).
Additionally, we examine the amount donated in the final incentivized lottery (0–250 EUR).
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We implement a between-subjects survey experiment embedded in a nationally representative online survey of 2,500 Italian adults aged 19–39. Respondents are randomly assigned to one of two framing conditions: Neoconservative Frame (Treatment group): A short text linking Italy’s declining birth rates to a loss of traditional family values and national identity. Neutral Frame (Control group): A short text highlighting the economic consequences of low fertility (e.g., pressure on pension systems and public services). After exposure to the frame, all participants answer a standardized battery of questions covering: Fertility ideals and short-term fertility intentions, Perceptions of the importance of various fertility-related factors (e.g., economic, relational, societal), Beliefs about how these factors influence people like them, as well as individuals of the opposite gender.
The randomization is implemented via the survey platform, and the treatment text is fully embedded at the beginning of the relevant survey module. The study allows us to identify the causal impact of ideological framing on fertility-related beliefs and intentions, and to explore heterogeneous effects across gender and other background characteristics.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Participants recruited by a professional survey company will be randomly assigned, via computer, to one of the two framing conditions (neoconservative or neutral), with equal probability (50/50). Randomization is implemented within the online survey platform at the individual level.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
We do not have clusters
Sample size: planned number of observations
N=2500, roughtly 50% in each framing condition (i.e. 1250 in each framing condition). We will control for order effect with respect to the tratment allocation in study 1 included in this survey (see the attached document for details).
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
N=2500, 1250 per each framing condition.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials

Documents

Document Name
Descritpion of the Structure of the Survey Experiment
Document Type
other
Document Description
It Describe the different studies conducted within the survey experiment.
File
Descritpion of the Structure of the Survey Experiment

MD5: fd68dadd43427a4bf3e0fa3bb8c01228

SHA1: e4abb58026f149be5e648e0a8955c78d6c1edfe3

Uploaded At: May 23, 2025

IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Comitato di Bioetica Università degli Studi di Bologna
IRB Approval Date
2024-06-13
IRB Approval Number
0164126
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials