Silent Stakeholders: Eliciting Political Preferences of Party Members.

Last registered on June 13, 2025

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Silent Stakeholders: Eliciting Political Preferences of Party Members.
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016095
Initial registration date
June 07, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
June 13, 2025, 6:55 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
Sapienza University of Rome

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
Sapienza University of Rome

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-06-15
End date
2025-08-15
Secondary IDs
Delibera 312/2025 rev. 1 del 12/05/2025
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This study explores the political preferences of Democratic Party (Partito Democratico) members in Rome, Italy, and how these preferences evolve over time. Using an online randomized survey distributed through the party’s mailing list, the research captures members’ political views and their understanding of the party agenda. Rather than assuming respondents hold fixed or fully formed opinions on key political issues, the study posits that their views may be conflicted and influenced by the information available to them. To test this, participants will be exposed to different informational treatments during the survey to assess whether and how their political attitudes respond to new information.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Di Maio, Michele and Valerio Leone Sciabolazza. 2025. "Silent Stakeholders: Eliciting Political Preferences of Party Members.." AEA RCT Registry. June 13. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16095-1.0
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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Our intervention targets all members of the Italian Democratic Party of Rome, Italy. The primary treatment consists of reducing information frictions among party members about their party platform to elicit their political orientations.
Our study has two main objectives.
First, it seeks to deepen our understanding of the foundations of party membership. By examining members' political orientations and comparing them with the official party platform, we aim to determine whether membership reflect ideological self-placement or alignment with the party's positions.
Second, it aims to provide evidence on the role that information plays in shaping the political orientations of party members and the extent to which media coverage can influence a party's ability to retain its support base.
Intervention (Hidden)
The intervention targets all members of the Italian Democratic Party of Rome, Italy. The primary treatment consists of reducing information frictions among party members about their party platform to elicit their political orientations.

To achieve causal identification of the intervention, the population is randomly assigned to treatment and control groups.
Participants in the treatment group are randomly divided into two subgroups: Group 1 and Group 2. Before answering a question about their political stance on a specific issue, both groups are presented with the party leadership’s position on that issue. However, the source of the information containing the party leadership’s position differs between the two groups.

In contrast, participants in the control group are not presented with the party leadership’s position before responding to the same question.
Assignment to the treatment and control groups is stratified to ensure that the personal characteristics of party members are balanced across groups. Similarly, stratification is applied when assigning participants to Group 1 and Group 2 within the treatment group. This process considers factors such as personal characteristics (e.g., gender and age) and the neighborhood of residence.
Intervention Start Date
2025-06-15
Intervention End Date
2025-08-15

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Adherence or not to the official party position,
Relative distance to the party position (e.g., perfect, imperfect, or non-adherence).
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
First stage:
Distance between party’s position and prior beliefs about position of the party regarding each of the following theme, using a Likert scale 1 to 10:
1. Nucleare
2. Ridurre età pensionabile
3. Salario minimo
4. Secondo te a quanto dovrebbe ammontare il salario minimo secondo il PD?
5. Potenziamento della medicina territoriale e di prossimità
6. Legge sul fine vita
7. Garantire aborto
8. Diritti LGBTQI+
9. Educazione sessuale e sentimentale a scuola
10. Estensione cittadinanza ai minori stranieri
11. Investire nelle politiche migratorie
12. Rimanere nella NATO
13. Ingresso Ucraina nella UE

Second stage:
a) Distance between own beliefs and party’s position on the themes listed above, measured as the difference in the points from the Likert scales used to assign importance to each theme
b) Preferences for themes expressed with hypothetical allocation of funds (100 million euros)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Differences in primary outcomes by gender, age, and municipality of residence
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Heterogeneity analysis of the outcomes by gender, age, and municipality of residence

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The investigation will be conducted using an online randomized survey distributed to the entire population of party members affiliated with the Italian Democratic Party of Rome registered in 2024, totaling approximately 8,000 individuals. Questions will assess party members' knowledge regarding the official party agenda. By randomizing the informational content of questions, we aim to understand how information concurs in determining their identification with party positions.
Experimental Design Details
The intervention is implemented using a randomized control trial approach to conduct a cross-sectional study on a population composed of individuals who are homogeneous in terms of geographical area and political orientations. Specifically:
- The intervention consists of administering an online survey where respondents are randomly exposed to different informational content about the official party platform.
- The population subject to the intervention is the entire membership of the Italian Democratic Party of Rome, totaling approximately 8,000 individuals.

The intervention is structured in four steps:
Step 1. We identify the official positions of the party as expressed by its leaders on a wide array of major political issues by reviewing various party official media platforms (e.g. the party website), other media platforms (radio, television, social networks, etc.), and other sources (e.g., the party manifesto).
Step 2. In the survey, respondents are asked to express their opinions on a sample of issues identified in Step 1. Respondents are exposed to different informational content through a randomized control trial approach. Members of the control group are asked to express their opinions without receiving any information on the positions of their leaders. Members of the treated group are asked the same questions but are informed about their leaders' positions by being exposed to quotes from them identified in Step 1. Within the treated group, the source of the quote used to report the leader’s opinion is randomized.
Step 3. The survey collection period is three months. During this time, we monitor potential changes in media coverage of political events to which respondents may be exposed while taking the survey, as these changes could affect their responses.
Step 4. We compare the answers provided by groups exposed to the direct treatment through the survey and the indirect treatment through media coverage changes. This analysis allows us to assess how different informational treatments impacted the responses of the surveyed members, either reinforcing or undermining their identification with the party.

Population is randomly assigned to treatment and control groups.

Participants in the treatment group are randomly divided into two subgroups: Group 1 and Group 2. Before answering a question about their political stance on a specific issue, both groups are presented with the party leadership’s position on that issue. However, the source of the information containing the party leadership’s position differs between the two groups.

In contrast, participants in the control group are not presented with the party leadership’s position before responding to the same question.
Assignment to the treatment and control groups is stratified to ensure that the personal characteristics of party members are balanced across groups. Similarly, stratification is applied when assigning participants to Group 1 and Group 2 within the treatment group. This process considers factors such as personal characteristics (e.g., gender and age) and the neighborhood of residence.

The three groups, treatment group 1, treatment group 2, and the control group, are all composed by the same number of party members, i.e. approximately 2,600 people.

During survey administration, we collect data on any sudden changes in media coverage of political events to identify participants exposed to different informational content before participating in the survey. This approach allows us to separate the potential confounding effect of media coverage from the intervention's impact and to further investigate how media coverage might influence the responses of surveyed party members. Data on media coverage is obtained using the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) and other open-source databases, which apply natural language processing techniques to published media content to identify, on a daily basis: covered events, the number of media reports on an event, and the tone of the content covering the event.

All party members will be invited to participate in the survey at the same moment. An email will be sent to all of them through the party's mailing list. The party mailing list is owned and managed by the Italian Democratic Party of Rome, and it will not be accessible to the researchers. The email will be sent directly by the Italian Democratic Party of Rome. Researcher will have no access to the use of the mailing list to avoid any data transfer to the researchers. The email will be sent approximately one month after receiving the consent to conduct the study.
Participants will have three months to provide their answers. Invitations to participate in the study are sent via the party's mailing list; therefore, no exclusion criteria based on the individual characteristics of party members are applied, no external pressure is placed on members to participate, and no monetary incentive is offered for participation.

In the mailing list message, party members are informed that the party is interested in better understanding i) the political orientations of its members on a list of relevant issues and ii) which communication platforms are most effective in creating strong communication between the party leadership and its ranks, and for this reason the party has asked a team of researchers coordinated by Sapienza to conduct a study on its members. In the message, party members are further informed that the study results will be published in scientific publications and summarized in one or more reports for the internal use of party members. The message will also indicate that members willing to participate in the study should fill out an online survey to elicit their political orientations (a link to the survey will be included in the message, and the link will be different for treated and control group members). Details on the participants’ rights regarding participation and withdrawal will be provided via a link to the informed consent form, which explains that participants have the right to: i) choose not to participate in the study, ii) withdraw from the study at any time during the survey administration, and iii) withdraw from the study after the survey administration by requesting the deletion of their data without providing any explanation before data is completely anonymized (24 month from the conclusion of the data collection period).

The data collected through the survey is analyzed to understand the extent to which information influences respondents’ adherence to the party platform and whether respondents exposed to information react differently depending on the source of the informational content used. The goal is to study the causal relationship between i) the provision of information (directly through the survey or indirectly through media) and ii) changes in political orientations as recorded in the survey. Identification of this causal relationship is achieved by leveraging the randomization of the treatment (i.e., exposure to informational content).

The survey is administered using the software SurveyCTO. Question randomization is conducted using Stata, and data analysis is performed with Stata and R.
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer using Stata 18
Randomization Unit
Individual level, stratified by: gender, age and party branch
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
0
Sample size: planned number of observations
Planned number of observations is equal to the total number of party members of the Democratic Party of Rome: approximately 8000 people.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
33% of the population is assigned to the control group (approximately 2600 people).
66% of the participants are assigned to the treatment group (approximately 5200 people).

Participants in the treatment group are randomly divided into two subgroups: Group 1 and Group 2. Before answering a question about their political stance on a specific issue, both groups are presented with the party leadership’s position on that issue. However, the source of the information containing the party leadership’s position differs between the two groups. Specifically, 33% of the population is assigned to Group 1 (approximately 2600 people), and 33% of the population is assigned to Group 2 (approximately 2600 people).
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials

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IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Comitato etico per la Ricerca transdisciplinare, Sapienza Università di Roma
IRB Approval Date
2025-05-12
IRB Approval Number
312/2025 rev. 1 del 12/05/2025
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials