Knowledge about Fertility, Information Provision, and the Demand for Fertility Policy: Evidence from a Survey Experiment with young Italians

We conduct a randomized information provision experiment within an online survey of 2,500 Italian adults aged 19–39, representative by gender, age, geography, and education. All respondents answer four incentivized factual questions about fertility in Italy, including the national fertility rate, its comparison to the EU average, and the links between fertility, gender equality, and female labor force participation.
Participants are randomly assigned to one of two groups: 1) Treatment group (50%) receives immediate feedback on the correct answers., 2) Control group (50%) does not receive any feedback.
This intervention allows us to identify the causal effect of improved knowledge on support for fertility-related policies. Policy preferences—our main outcome—are measured after the treatment and include ratings of six pronatalist policy areas. Responses are analyzed controlling for earlier experimental conditions in the survey, including a framing treatment related to gender norms.

2025-04-28

2025-06-30

Our primary outcomes capture the causal effect of information provision on participants’ support for a range of pronatalist policy interventions. The key experimental variation is whether respondents receive feedback on the accuracy of their beliefs about fertility levels and their relationship with labor market participation and gender roles.
Participants are asked to rate the expected effectiveness of six distinct policy categories—economic transfers, work-family reconciliation policies, labor market stability, childcare services, housing support, and awareness campaigns—on a scale from 0 to 10.
Our main outcome is the difference in average support for each policy category between the treatment group (which receives factual feedback) and the control group (which does not), enabling us to estimate the causal effect of information provision on policy preferences.
We will test whether information increases support more for policies that address career-family constraints (e.g., reconciliation and childcare) relative to symbolic or informational measures (e.g., awareness campaigns).
We also examine treatment heterogeneity by baseline belief accuracy, testing the hypothesis that information provision is most effective among participants who were initially misinformed. This is consistent with models of belief-driven policy demand and Bayesian updating.

In addition to our primary outcomes on policy preferences, we examine two secondary outcomes that reflect broader perceptions and normative beliefs relevant to fertility decision-making. These are inspired by recent theoretical contributions emphasizing the role of career-family compatibility and gender norms in shaping fertility behavior (Doepke et al., 2023).
1. Perceived Compatibility Between Career and Parenthood
Participants are asked to evaluate how much various life factors (such as economic stability, relationship quality, and childcare access) influence their expectations around having children. Among these, we focus specifically on the perceived compatibility between having children and maintaining a career. This outcome captures whether individuals see professional aspirations as structurally and practically compatible with parenthood. We examine whether exposure to factual information about fertility and labor market patterns affects this perception.
2. Gender Role Attitudes Related to Fertility and Family Life
Participants are asked to express agreement or disagreement with a series of statements about gender roles in parenting, work, and household dynamics. These include beliefs about whether mothers should reduce working hours, whether men should be the primary earners, and whether women can feel fulfilled without children. From these items, we construct a composite index reflecting gender-role traditionalism versus egalitarianism in the context of fertility. We test whether providing accurate information about the relationship between fertility, gender equality, and female labor force participation shifts these normative views.
Together, these secondary outcomes help assess whether belief updating in the domain of fertility also extends to deeper social attitudes that underlie reproductive decision-making and the demand for policy.

We are collaborating with a professional survey company in Italy to conduct an online survey experiment focused on fertility-related knowledge, beliefs, and policy preferences. The survey targets a representative sample of 2,500 Italian adults aged 19–39, stratified by gender, age group, geographic area (North, Center, South, and Islands), and education level (with or without a university degree).
All participants complete a set of incentivized factual questions covering core demographic and socioeconomic dimensions of fertility. These include: (i) the current total fertility rate (TFR) in Italy, (ii) how Italy compares to the EU average, (iii) the relationship between gender equality within couples and fertility outcomes, and (iv) the link between fertility and female labor force participation. In addition, the survey elicits participants’ fertility ideals, expectations, short-term intentions, and perceived social norms.
Participants are randomly assigned to one of two experimental conditions:
• Treatment group (50%): receives immediate feedback on the correct answers to the four incentivized factual questions.
• Control group (50%): answers the same questions but receives no feedback at any point during the survey.
This information provision treatment is designed to causally identify the effect of updated knowledge on downstream beliefs and policy preferences. Since fertility ideals and intentions are measured before the feedback is delivered, and policy preferences afterward, the design allows us to isolate the effect of belief updating from baseline preferences.
After the knowledge module, all participants are asked to rate the expected effectiveness of six pronatalist policy interventions—economic transfers, work-family reconciliation measures, job stability policies, childcare services, housing support, and awareness campaigns—on a 0–10 scale. These responses form the basis of our primary outcome: support for fertility-related public policy.
Belief questions are monetarily incentivized to ensure accuracy and attention. The randomization of the feedback intervention enables us to test whether correcting misperceptions increases support for policy, particularly among those who were initially uninformed.
In our analysis, we control for participants’ exposure to earlier experimental treatments embedded in the broader survey. Notably, Study 2 includes a framing manipulation invoking neoconservative narratives related to fertility and gender roles. Because this framing could plausibly prime attitudes toward family policy—including through norm activation or ideological spillover—we include prior treatment assignment indicators to ensure our estimates isolate the specific causal impact of the information provision. This approach is motivated by recent theoretical work (Doepke et al., 2023) emphasizing the role of cultural beliefs, social norms, and compatibility between family and career as key determinants of fertility attitudes in low-fertility contexts.

Each participants is randomly assigned to one of the 2 treatments (Feedback vs No-Feedback). Randomization is performed at the respondent level within the survey platform.

individual

No

N/A

2500, about 50% in each treatment

2500, about 50% in each treatment