Memory and Probability: The Formation of Beliefs About Livestock Loss from Droughts among East African Pastoralists

Last registered on June 16, 2025
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Memory and Probability: The Formation of Beliefs About Livestock Loss from Droughts among East African Pastoralists
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016202
Initial registration date
June 12, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
June 16, 2025, 7:29 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

There is information in this trial unavailable to the public. Use the button below to request access.

Request Information

Primary Investigator

Name
Karlijn Morsink
Affiliation
Utrecht University School of Economics
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Vinh Phan
PI Affiliation
Erasmus University Rotterdam
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2023-12-01
End date
2027-03-31
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
Belief formation, Memory Interference, Similarity, Recall
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Pastoralists in sub-Saharan Africa are frequently exposed to droughts that pose substantial risk to their primary livelihood: livestock. The way they form beliefs about this risk is critical for their choice of risk-mitigation strategies, and deviations from rational belief updating have been observed in this context. This study investigates how East African pastoralists form beliefs about the likelihood of cattle loss due to droughts, focusing on the role of memory and experience in shaping beliefs about risk. Using a sample of 4,689 households across 391 communities in Ethiopia and Kenya, we explore how past experiences, memory, and similarity of past events influence belief formation. We employ both observational data and a randomized survey experiment to examine the impact of actual and primed experiences with varying degrees of similarity to drought-induced cattle loss.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Morsink, Karlijn and Vinh Phan. 2025. "Memory and Probability: The Formation of Beliefs About Livestock Loss from Droughts among East African Pastoralists." AEA RCT Registry. June 16. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16202-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2024-11-24
Intervention End Date
2025-03-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Beliefs about the likelihood of cattle loss due to droughts
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We implement a survey experiment among 4,689 respondents across 391 communities in Ethiopia and Kenya to study whether recalled experiences influence pastoralists’ beliefs. Within each community, respondents are randomly assigned to a control group or one of the three treatment groups.
In the control group, respondents are not asked to recall any past memory and are simply asked about their beliefs regarding the likelihood of cattle loss due to droughts. In each recall treatment group, we first ask the respondents if they have ever experienced a pre-specified event in the past. If the respondent reports to not have lived the event, they receive no further recall questions. If the respondent reports to have lived the event, we further ask three open-ended questions to help direct respondents’ memories to this past event. In treatment group one, respondents are primed to recall the last time they lost cattle due to droughts. In treatment group two, we prime respondents to recall their experience with losing cattle due to raids. In the last treatment group, we prime respondents to recall their experience with losing goats due to droughts.
For all three recall treatments, we also ask respondents to describe anything else that comes to their mind when they think about the recalled experience. Finally, respondents are asked to give a rating on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 indicates that they do not remember the event vividly at all, and 10 indicates that they remember the event very vividly.
Later in the survey, we present respondents with a series of positive and negative life events, including the priming events in treatment group two and three. We ask whether the respondents have experienced each of the event and to rate, on a scale of 0 to 10, how similar they think these events are to the anticipated event of losing cattle due to droughts. We do not elicit similarity scores for the priming event of treat group one, i.e., losing cattle due to droughts, since this event is exactly the anticipated event.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization by STATA
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
4,689
Sample size: planned number of observations
4,689
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
1171 in control, 1174 in recall treatment 1, 1173 in recall treatment 2, 1175 in recall treatment 3
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
International Livestock Research Institute Institutional research Ethic Committee
IRB Approval Date
2024-01-30
IRB Approval Number
ILRI-IREC2023-76
Analysis Plan

There is information in this trial unavailable to the public. Use the button below to request access.

Request Information