News, Emotions, and Policy Views on Immigration

Last registered on July 08, 2025

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
News, Emotions, and Policy Views on Immigration
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016216
Initial registration date
July 07, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
July 07, 2025, 3:27 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
July 08, 2025, 5:12 AM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
University of Trento

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
University of Verona

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-07-07
End date
2025-07-28
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to provide evidence on the role of of emotional factors in shaping policy views.
We examine the effect of sensational news and of the emotions they trigger on policy views on immigration. The first research question we investigate is whether news-induced emotions affect policy views on immigration. In our second research question, we explore whether emotions influence the way people respond to factual information (statistics). More specifically, we explore whether emotions influence (i) the learning of new facts, i.e., belief updating and (ii) the way in which belief updating translates into a change in policy views.
We address these questions by conducting a survey experiment in Italy. In a between-subjects design, we randomly expose participants to sensational news stories about crimes perpetrated by immigrants and/or to statistical information about immigration and crime.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Murard, Elie and Simone Quercia. 2025. "News, Emotions, and Policy Views on Immigration." AEA RCT Registry. July 08. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16216-1.1
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)


Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2025-07-07
Intervention End Date
2025-07-28

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The three main outcomes we will examine are:

(1) Respondents' beliefs about immigration (about the statistical facts), which we elicit both before and after the treatments

(2) Emotions by asking participants how strongly they felt positive (joy and surprise) and negative (fear, anger, contempt, and disgust) emotions while reading the news article

(3) Attitudes towards immigrants and immigration policy which we measure after treatments
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
1) Beliefs
We elicit people’s prior and posterior beliefs about immigration (before and after the treatments). We ask five questions about statistical facts. First, we ask the percentage of foreigners in the population residing in Italy. Second, we ask them to estimate the percentage of foreigners among people reported to the judicial authority. Furthermore, we ask the percentage of (i) petty theft (ii) murder (iii) sexual assault among crimes committed by foreigners. In these three cases we also provide the corresponding percentages for natives as a benchmark. Participants answer these five questions using an open-ended format.

2) Emotions
After reading the article, participants are asked to report their emotions. We present participants with a list of seven emotions and ask them on a scale from 1 to 7 how strongly they felt each emotion while reading the article. We chose seven basic emotions: anger, contempt, disgust, fear, joy, sadness, surprise. All emotions were presented in the same screen and the order in which the emotions were presented was randomized across participants.
We will use two measures of emotions. The first will be constructed as the average of all the negative emotions (fear, anger, sadness, disgust, contempt). We will also construct a `‘negative emotional valence" variable as the difference between negative emotions (fear, anger, sadness, disgust, contempt) and positive ones (joy and surprise), standardized to take values between -1 and 1, with higher values representing a more negative emotional state, and 0 a perfect balance between positive and negative emotions.

3) Attitudes towards immigration
We elicit attitudes towards migration using three questions. The first question asks whether the number of migrants arriving in Italy every year should be reduced a lot/reduced a bit/left unchanged/increased a bit/increased a lot. The second is taken from the European Social Survey and asks whether the arrival of immigrants from different countries has made Italy a better or a worse place to live on a scale from 0 to 10.
Finally, we ask whether participants would like to sign a petition to the Italian Parliament. They could select one of the following three options: (a) I would like to sign a petition to increase the number of residence permits issued each year to foreigners (b) I would like to sign a petition to reduce the number of residence permits issued each year to foreigners (c) I am not willing to sign any petition. We will use all three attitudes as outcome variables of interest.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Our experiment is a between-subject design in which we expose respondents to different news stories and information. The design has a 4x2 structure where we have 4 different news stories and 2 information conditions. All our conditions are presented in Table 1 in the attached Pre-analysis Plan.
Our treatments vary along two dimensions: the article to be read and whether or not participants receive statistical information. We describe each treatment in details below.

Control: Participants in the control group receive no statistical information and are asked to read a neutral article about a cultural festival in Italy.

Rape News: In this treatment participants receive no statistical information and are asked to read an article reporting a rape perpetrated by an immigrant against a young women on her way to work.

Murder News: In this treatment participants receive no statistical information and are asked to read an article reporting a murder perpetrated by an immigrant against a women in a bar at night.

Theft News: In this treatment participants receive no statistical information and read an article reporting a petty theft of a woman's handbag committed by an immigrant.

Info: This treatment is identical to the control treatment except for the statistical information that participants receive. As mentioned above, the statistical information contains all the data that we ask in the beliefs questionnaire (before and after the treatment), that is, the percentage of foreigners in the population, the percentage of foreigners among criminals, the percentage of rapes, murders and thefts among crimes committed by foreigners. Participants are informed that all data are taken from Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) and refer to the year 2022. The order of the statistical info screen and the article will be randomized.

Rape news & Info: This treatment exposes participants to statistical information and to the rape news article. The order of the two screens will be randomized.

Murder news & Info: This treatment exposes participants to statistical information and to the murder news article. The order of the two screens will be randomized.

Theft news & Info: This treatment exposes participants to statistical information and to the theft news article. The order of the two screens will be randomized.

The design of the survey is composed by several blocks that follow the order (see Pre-analysis Plan for details):
- Informed consent, age and sex
- Prior beliefs
- Initial sociodemographics
- Statistics (only info treatments) & News article (in randomized order in info treatments)
- Emotion elicitation
- Attention Checks
- Posterior Beliefs
- Attitudes and final demographics
- Views on the study purpose

Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomizer in Qualtrics
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
12,000 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
12,000 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
1500 subjects in each treatment and in the control group
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
1500 subjects in each treatment give us 0.8 power to detect an effect size of 0.10 of a standard deviation between the control group and each of the treatments at a .05 significance level.
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Ethics Committee of the Economics Department at the University of Verona
IRB Approval Date
2023-05-08
IRB Approval Number
prot. 175542 – rep. 702/2023
Analysis Plan

Analysis Plan Documents

Pre-Analysis Plan

MD5: 7cfa5f2c34e567c742d1a7adcde3175d

SHA1: f4e886155cc8e8ac1efc65a3afe986d3f5cd6a4e

Uploaded At: July 07, 2025

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials