Event-based upward flexibility in Spain

Last registered on September 24, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Event-based upward flexibility in Spain
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016221
Initial registration date
June 13, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
June 16, 2025, 7:36 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
September 24, 2025, 2:03 PM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Andrew Schein
Affiliation
Centre for Net Zero
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-06-14
End date
2026-09-14
Keywords
Environment & Energy
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
The growth of renewables is creating frequent periods of electricity oversupply, driving wholesale prices to zero or even negative levels and leading to surging curtailment costs. A promising but understudied lever is to encourage households to shift electricity use into periods of surplus supply, helping to balance future electricity grids in Spain and other countries transitioning to high-renewable systems.

To explore the potential of this demand-shifting approach at scale, Centre for Net Zero (CNZ) will conduct a large-scale randomized controlled trial (RCT) with 66,441 customers across Spain to test how different financial incentives affect household electricity demand during “Turn-up” events. These events occur when wholesale prices are forecast to be very low or negative, simulating a future in which price signals are passed through to consumers to encourage demand-side flexibility
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Schein, Andrew. 2025. "Event-based upward flexibility in Spain." AEA RCT Registry. September 24. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16221-1.3
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
See analysis plan.
Intervention Start Date
2026-06-14
Intervention End Date
2026-09-14

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Associated CUPS (in Spanish,Código Universal del Punto de Suministro or universal supply point number) electricity consumption (import kWh only) at the hourly level during “Turn up” events, in kWh
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Consumption is measured at the customer meter point level.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Survey responses sent to all participating households (including identified pure control groups who never receive any outreach on the events). These include:
To what extent do you think that it is technically feasible to stop greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the century while [maintaining / sustaining] satisfactory standards of living in [country]?
Not at all; A little; Moderately; A lot; A great deal
If we decide to halt climate change through ambitious policies, to what extent do you think it would negatively affect your lifestyle?
Not at all; A little; Moderately; A lot; A great deal
Do you believe that Government climate policies will provide more benefits or impose more costs on you personally?
Mostly benefits; Neutral; mostly costs
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
These survey questions are designed to assess whether participation in the trial influences individuals' perceptions of the energy transition – specifically, whether it increases the likelihood that they view the transition as personally beneficial. The exact wording may be refined following piloting to ensure clarity, neutrality, and respondent comprehension. We will translate the questions into Spanish before sending them to customers.

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
See analysis plan.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Computer, using R. See attached analysis plan for details.
Randomization Unit
Customer email address
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
66,441 clusters, where regressions are clustered at the customer email address level
Sample size: planned number of observations
For 66,441 customers, if each event is one hour (noting that events may be longer – in which case this estimate would be conservative), with a total of 5 events, this results in approximately 664,410 observations in the main analysis, clustered at the customer level (66,441 clusters).
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Treatment: 51,109 (among which 20% will be a "rotating control group" at any given event; see analysis plan for details)
Pure Control: 15,332
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
We conducted simple simulations of our trial design using consumption data from Spanish Octopus Energy customers in 2024, assuming 10,000 customers per trial arm (ignoring the “pure control” group, which we believe makes our power calculations conservative). We created placebo treatment and control indicators, assuming five “events” between May and July 2024. Using the rule of 2.8 (wherein the MDES at 80% power and 5% alpha is 2.8 times the standard error on the treatment coefficient), we find that our MDES is 0.00519 kWh per hour (2% of hourly consumption during events).
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

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