Transition to Low-Carbon Ag-Tech Solutions: A Marketing Campaign for Adoption of Solar Irrigation Pumps in Kenya

Last registered on June 30, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Transition to Low-Carbon Ag-Tech Solutions: A Marketing Campaign for Adoption of Solar Irrigation Pumps in Kenya
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016298
Initial registration date
June 27, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
June 30, 2025, 6:06 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Richard Mulwa
Affiliation
University of Nairobi
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Marc Jeuland
PI Affiliation
Duke University
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PI Name
Mikayla Czajkowski
PI Affiliation
Sunculture
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-07-24
End date
2026-04-15
Keywords
Agriculture, Environment & Energy, Gender, Welfare
Additional Keywords
low-carbon agricultural technologies, adoption, gender, welfare, climate change
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Climate change poses a significant threat to agricultural sustainability in Kenya, with adverse effects on the livelihoods of millions of smallholder farmers and Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs). Increasingly harsh weather patterns, extreme temperatures, and unpredictable rainfall have led to reduced crop yields, loss of livestock, damaged infrastructure, and overall food insecurity. Alongside adaptation efforts to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change in the agricultural sector, mitigation interventions aimed at transitioning the country into an inclusive green economy (IGE) are being adopted in various sectors of the economy. These interventions aim at transitioning the country to a low-carbon development path that is resource efficient and socially inclusive. However, there are limited low-carbon agricultural-technology solutions that can aid agricultural MSMEs to adapt to the changing climate, enhance productivity, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, several challenges including limited access to resources and opportunities for smallholder farmers especially women and youth, and agricultural MSMEs hamper the adoption of low-carbon agricultural-technology solutions. This study aims to generate evidence for better-informed national and county-level policies and programs aimed at promoting the adoption of low-carbon agricultural-technology solutions among smallholder farmers through: (1) targeted informational awareness campaigns on smallholder farmers including youth and women; (2) training and capacity building to improve the welfare and empowerment of youth and women using low-carbon agricultural technologies; and (3) the adoption of solar water and irrigation pumps increase the welfare and empowerment of youth and women.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Czajkowski, Mikayla, Marc Jeuland and Richard Mulwa. 2025. "Transition to Low-Carbon Ag-Tech Solutions: A Marketing Campaign for Adoption of Solar Irrigation Pumps in Kenya." AEA RCT Registry. June 30. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16298-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Our intervention will be an informational campaign in form of an enhanced marketing campaign targeting potential customers of Sunculture (local MSMEs selling solar water pumps). An encouragement design is suitable for evaluating the impact of this intervention because we cannot exclude potential customers from participating in the informational campaign program. We shall therefore randomly select households to receive the information campaign aimed at increasing the awareness of low-carbon farming technologies supplied by Sunculture. This should increase the probability of potential adoption relative to those who do not receive the informational campaign advertisement. The encouragement design will enable us to evaluate the local average treatment effect (LATE).

Based on a conservative power calculation, we shall use a sample size of 1000 households for each intervention, where 50 percent of the participants will be assigned to the treatment group (500 households) and 50 percent to the control group (500 households). The power calculation assumes a 5 percent level of statistical significance and a statistical power of 80 percent. There are several potential issues regarding internal validity that may arise from using the encouragement design and random assignment. First, contamination arising from the control group participating in the program may arise. One way of estimating impact in such a case would be to use random assignment as an instrument to estimate the LATE.
Intervention Start Date
2025-08-27
Intervention End Date
2025-10-27

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
1. Adoption of solar water pumps
2. Energy use patterns
3. Crop yields, incomes and savings (change in welfare)

Primary Outcomes (explanation)
In all cases, the data will be disaggregated to determine the impact of the intervention on different groups (men, women, and youth). Specifically, we will be interested in determining how informational and training campaigns impacts adoption of solar water pumps for the different groups. In addition, we will assess the energy use patterns since solar water pumps are expected to reduce gasoline use among farmers using irrigation pumps. Adoption of solar water pump negates farmer dependence on rainfed agriculture, thus increasing crop yields, income, and savings. These will be assessed for all gender groups.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
1. Time management
2. Perceptions of climate risk and vulnerability
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Tima allocation: Adoption of solar water pumps is expected to reduce the amount of time spent fetching water for irrigation. This is expected to alter household time allocation, thus increasing time used in other household activities. We will therefore assess the current time allocation in the household vis a vis, time allocation after adoption. This will be disaggregated by gender.
2. We will also assess farmer perceptions on climate risk and vulnerability before and after adoption.

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We propose to randomize non-adopting households into two groups: a) standard marketing, and b) enhanced marketing. The enhanced marketing intervention (hereafter “marketing +”) compared to standard door-to-door marketing is conducted in accordance with SunCulture sales agents’ typical approach. The “marketing +” intervention will include the following extra elements:
a. More targeted information delivery, in the form of a video shown on a smart phone or tablet that combines evaluation results with farmer testimonials
b. Invitation to attend a “rainmaker” party with a local model farmer
c. Referral incentives delivered to local model farmer based on converted customers
The informational campaign will comprise enhanced marketing campaign targeting potential customers of SunCulture.

Delivery modality: All of the door-to-door components will be delivered by a University of Nairobi team trained in collaboration with SunCulture according to its standard approach. SunCulture will decide when these teams are ready to deliver the intervention. The “rainmaker” party will be organized and supervised by SunCulture in coordination with University of Nairobi (for communication of timing to households recruited in the door-to-door component). Alongside the delivery modality, the following were collected: baseline data among non-adopters, and endline data collected at least one growing season later to assess causal impact among the adopters in the new group. The data will be collected in the counties of Makueni, Machakos, Uasin Gishu, Trans Nzoia, Bungoma, and Kakamega.
2. Baseline: This was completed in April-May 2025.
3. Intervention: This will be in July -August 2025.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
A Randomized selection of non-adopting households using a computer application will divide the households into two groups: a) standard door-to-door marketing based on SunCulture’s sales’ agents’ approach, and b) enhanced marketing intervention, i.e., “marketing +”. The enhanced market will have more targeted information delivery (combining evaluation results with farmer testimonials on video) and referral incentives. An invitation will be sent to non-adopting households to attend a “rainmaker” party with a local model farmer.
Randomization Unit
The unit of randomization will be an individual household.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
800 households
Sample size: planned number of observations
800 households
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
400 control farmers and 400 treated.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Based on a conservative power calculation, 50 percent of the participants will be assigned to the treatment group (400 households) and 50 percent to the control group (400 households). The power calculation assumes a 5 percent level of statistical significance and a statistical power of 80 percent.
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
United States University-Africa (Institutional Ethics Review Committee)
IRB Approval Date
2025-06-26
IRB Approval Number
USIU-A/ISERC/US878-2025
Analysis Plan