Ballot Language and School Bond Support v2 (Texas)

Last registered on July 14, 2025

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Ballot Language and School Bond Support v2 (Texas)
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016319
Initial registration date
July 07, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
July 11, 2025, 6:07 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
July 14, 2025, 5:05 PM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
University of Houston

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
University at Albany - State University of New York

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-07-07
End date
2025-07-25
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This study aims to understand how ballot language influences public support for school bonds. We are specifically interested in understanding if adding language that increases the salience of property tax obligations to hypothetical school bond proposals influences stated support for school bonds and general investment in public schools in a national sample of survey respondents.
Topics and questions to be explored include:

Q1: Do Individuals who are presented with school bond proposals that include explicit references to property tax obligations report different willingness to vote in favor of school bonds than those who do not?

H1: Individuals who are presented with school bond proposals that include explicit references to property tax obligations are less likely to support school bond proposals compared to those who are presented with the same bond proposals with no reference to property taxes.

H2: Individuals who are presented with school bond proposals that include explicit, detailed references to large increases in property tax obligations are less likely to support school bond proposals compared to those who are presented with the same bond proposals with no reference to property taxes or explicit, detailed references to very small increases in property tax obligations.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Heller, Blake and Melissa Lyon. 2025. "Ballot Language and School Bond Support v2 (Texas)." AEA RCT Registry. July 14. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16319-1.1
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
In this online survey experiment, subjects will be randomly assigned to one of four conditions, control, treatment1, treatment2, or treatment3.

In all conditions, participants will be presented with a brief description of a hypothetical school bond proposition reading: "Consider the school bond proposal outlined in School District Proposition A as if the school district proposing the bond were the school district where you live. Assume that all school district policies, conditions, and personnel are otherwise the same as they are today.

SCHOOL DISTRICT PROPOSITION A

THE ISSUANCE OF $[BOND SIZE],500,000 OF BONDS BY THE SCHOOL DISTRICT FOR THE RENOVATION AND EXPANSION OF EXISTING SCHOOL BUILDINGS (INCLUDING SAFETY AND SECURITY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR SUCH SCHOOL BUILDINGS), TECHNOLOGY EQUIPMENT AND SYSTEMS, TECHNOLOGY INFRASTRUCTURE, INSTRUCTION TECHNOLOGY, AND LEVYING THE TAX IN PAYMENT THEREOF."

In all conditions, the value of [BOND SIZE] will vary by the county size an individual reports (9 for small counties, 26 for medium-sized counties, 82 for large counties, and 26 for individuals choose not to report their county size).

In the treatment1 condition, this sentence will be followed by “THIS IS A PROPERTY TAX INCREASE.”

In the treatment2 condition, this sentence will be followed by “THIS IS A PROPERTY TAX INCREASE. THE BONDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A TAX INCREASE OF $0.011 PER $1,000 OF ASSESSED VALUATION OR $1.10 PER YEAR FOR A $100,000 HOME.”

In the treatment3 condition, this sentence will be followed by “THIS IS A PROPERTY TAX INCREASE. THE BONDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A TAX INCREASE OF $0.11 PER $100 OF ASSESSED VALUATION OR $110.00 PER YEAR FOR A $100,000 HOME.”

Each condition will conclude by asking participants “How would you vote on School District Proposition A if it were on your local ballot in the next general election?”
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2025-07-07
Intervention End Date
2025-07-25

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The primary outcome of interest is a binary measure of support for the bond. Respondents will be asked “How would you vote on School District Proposition A if it were on your local ballot in the next general election?” where FOR is coded as 1 and AGAINST is coded as 0. Our primary analysis will test whether there are differences in the average rate of bond support between the treatment and control groups using ordinary least squares regression, controlling for county size, state, political orientation, and a set of demographic covariates to the extent that they increase precision.

Our primary analysis will examine whether our treatment impacts overall rates of support for school bonds, overall and by political affiliation. Exploratory analyses will assess heterogeneity in effects by subgroup, including by gender, partisan identity, race/ethnicity, home ownership, and whether respondents are the parents of school-aged children.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
The first secondary outcome of interest is a measure of general support for school spending. Respondents will be asked: "State legislatures must make choices when making spending decisions on important state programs. Would you like your legislature to increase or decrease spending on education?" Where the choices are "Greatly Increase", "Slightly Increase", "Maintain", "Slightly Decrease", and "Greatly Decrease." We will estimate the impact of the treatment on support for increasing school spending by combining the first two categories ("Greatly increase" and "Slightly Increase") into a single binary measure of support for increasing school spending vs. decreasing or maintaining. We will also examine whether the treatment influences support for decreasing school spending by combining the last two categories ("Greatly Decrease" and "Slightly Decrease") into a single binary measure of support for decreasing school spending vs. increasing or maintaining.

A second set of secondary outcomes are measures of which factors respondents considered as they decided whether to support the school bond. These outcome variables will be constructed from responses to the question, "Which of the following was on your mind as you decided whether to support or oppose the school bond proposition?" Respondents can select all that apply from the following choices: Teacher salaries, school building condition, academic achievement, technology in schools, property taxes, sales taxes, current school spending, overall government spending or the deficit, inflation, my local school board or district leadership, my state's department of education, and something else (write-in response).

A third secondary outcome will be the amount that respondents expect their housing costs (annual property taxes for home owners; monthly rent for renters) to increase by if the bond proposal is successful. Respondents will be asked "How much would you expect your [annual property taxes/monthly rent] to increase if this bond were passed? Please respond using a whole number to represent the approximate increase you expect in U.S. Dollars, rounding to the nearest dollar. Enter 0 if you would not expect your [annual property taxes/monthly rent] to change."

A fourth set of secondary outcomes will assess who respondents believe are supporters of the school bond proposal. All respondents will be asked "Which of the following people and organizations do you think would support SCHOOL DISTRICT PROPOSITION A?" where they can choose as many as apply from "Governor Greg Abbott, Beto O'Rourke, Texas Republicans, Texas Democrats, Texas Parent Teacher Association, Texas Tribune, None of the above." We will construct binary indicators recording whether respondents believe each person or organization would support the bond proposal and collapse the maximum value of individual indicators into partisan groups where "Governor Greg Abbott" and "Texas Republicans" are "conservative"; "Texas Democrats" and "Beto O'Rourke" are "liberal"; and "Texas PTA" and "Texas Tribune" are "non-partisan."

Our analyses of secondary outcomes will test
1) whether there are differences in the average rate of support for school spending between the treatment and control groups;
2) whether our treatment changes the factors that respondents report considering as they decided whether to support the school bond;
3) whether there are differences in the expected change in housing costs between the treatment and control groups (analyzing impacts on home-owners and renters separately and jointly); and
4) whether there are differences in the share of respondents who believe that conservative, liberal, or non-partisan groups would support the school bond proposal between the treatment and control groups.

All secondary analyses will use ordinary least squares regression and control for county size, state, political orientation, and a set of demographic covariates to the extent that they increase precision.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
This is a simple four-armed randomized experiment where all respondents will be presented with a hypothetical school bond proposal, and the treatment groups' proposals will conclude with one of the following addenda:

treatment1: “THIS IS A PROPERTY TAX INCREASE.”

treatment2: “THIS IS A PROPERTY TAX INCREASE. THE BONDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A TAX INCREASE OF $0.011 PER $1,000 OF ASSESSED VALUATION OR $1.10 PER YEAR FOR A $100,000 HOME.”

treatment3: “THIS IS A PROPERTY TAX INCREASE. THE BONDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A TAX INCREASE OF $0.11 PER $100 OF ASSESSED VALUATION OR $110.00 PER YEAR FOR A $100,000 HOME.”

The control group's proposal will be identical, except that it will omit the addenda. The size of the proposed bond will be based upon the respondent's reported county size, where residents of larger counties evaluate larger hypothetical bonds and residents of smaller counties evaluate smaller hypothetical bonds.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization embedded in Qualtrics; approximately 25% Control; 25% treatment1; 25% treatment2; 25% treatment3
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
A sample of approximately 1,600 respondents will be recruited via CloudResearch Connect. All respondents must be at least 18 years old and reside in Texas, USA.
Sample size: planned number of observations
Our target sample is 1,600 Texas adults.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Our target sample of 1,600 Texas adults will be evenly divided between the treatment and control groups:
400 Control
400 Treatment1
400 Treatment2
400 Treatment3
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
For each comparison between control and a treatment arm (treatment1; treatment2; treatment3): MDES = .0992 (9.9pp) at 80% power, assuming 50% baseline support for school bonds. STATA code: power twomeans 0, sd(0.5) a(.05) power(0.8) n(800)
Supporting Documents and Materials

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IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
University of Houston IRB
IRB Approval Date
2025-07-03
IRB Approval Number
STUDY00005532

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials