Anticipating AI: Beliefs About Technological Progress and Learning Decisions

Last registered on February 10, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Anticipating AI: Beliefs About Technological Progress and Learning Decisions
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016330
Initial registration date
February 03, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
February 10, 2026, 6:02 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Mingyang Sun
Affiliation
Johns Hopkins University
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Michael Luca
PI Affiliation
Johns Hopkins University
PI Name
Jeffrey Fossett
PI Affiliation
Harvard Business School
PI Name
Vijay Viswanathan
PI Affiliation
Northwestern University

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-07-11
End date
2026-09-30
Keywords
Behavior, Firms & Productivity, Labor
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We cannot risk that participants become aware of this information before the study is complete. Please refer to the pre-analysis plan for more information.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Fossett, Jeffrey et al. 2026. "Anticipating AI: Beliefs About Technological Progress and Learning Decisions." AEA RCT Registry. February 10. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16330-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Please refer to the pre-analysis plan for details.
Intervention Start Date
2025-07-11
Intervention End Date
2026-09-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
We cannot risk that participants become aware of this information before the study is complete. Please refer to the pre-analysis plan for more information.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
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Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization is done by online survey platform.
Randomization Unit
Individual — each participant is independently randomized to a treatment arm using Qualtrics.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
We cannot risk that participants become aware of this information before the study is complete. Please refer to the pre-analysis plan for more information.
Sample size: planned number of observations
We cannot risk that participants become aware of this information before the study is complete. Please refer to the pre-analysis plan for more information.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
We cannot risk that participants become aware of this information before the study is complete. Please refer to the pre-analysis plan for more information.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials

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IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Homewood Institutional Review Board (HIRB) Johns Hopkins University
IRB Approval Date
2025-05-12
IRB Approval Number
HIRB00020893
Analysis Plan

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