Inflation Expectations in the Italian Housing Market

Last registered on July 07, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Inflation Expectations in the Italian Housing Market
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016343
Initial registration date
July 07, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
July 07, 2025, 3:27 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

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Primary Investigator

Name
Elisa Guglielminetti
Affiliation
Bank of Italy
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Michele Loberto
PI Affiliation
Bank of Italy
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Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2022-09-01
End date
2026-12-31
Keywords
Finance & Microfinance
Additional Keywords
inflation expectations, housing market, real estate agents
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Since 2022Q4, we have included a randomized control trial within the Italian Housing Market Survey (IHMS). The IHMS is conducted at quarterly frequency since 2009 by the Bank of Italy with the cooperation of Tecnoborsa and the Tax Revenue Agency on a rotating panel of about 1,500 real estate agents, representative of the reference universe consisting of about 32,000 estate agencies that work in Italy on behalf of third parties.
The survey question resembles that included in the Bank of Italy's Survey on Inflation and Growth Expectations (SIGE), which is conducted on a sample of Italian businesses. Two groups of real estate agents who take part in the survey are randomly assigned to receive two different variants of the same question. Half of the sample (treated group) receives publicly available information about the latest inflation rates in Italy and the euro area; while the other half (control group) does not receive any information. The two groups are then asked about their projections for inflation in consumer prices, using the same wording.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Guglielminetti, Elisa and Michele Loberto. 2025. "Inflation Expectations in the Italian Housing Market." AEA RCT Registry. July 07. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16343-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2024-10-22
Intervention End Date
2025-12-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Real estate agents' expectations and behavior in the Italian housing market
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Two groups of real estate agents who take part in the survey are randomly assigned to receive two different variants of the same question. Half of the sample (treated group) receives publicly available information about the latest inflation rates in Italy and the euro area; while the other half (control group) does not receive any information. The two groups are then asked about their projections for inflation in consumer prices, using the same wording.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization by a computer
Randomization Unit
Individual randomization
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
0
Sample size: planned number of observations
1500
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
For each quarterly survey wave, about half of the surveyed agents (750 units) receive information on previous inflation in Italy and the euro area (treated group), while the other half (about 750 units) do not receive any information (control group).
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan