Housing Market Expectations and Environment

Last registered on July 11, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Housing Market Expectations and Environment
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016346
Initial registration date
July 08, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
July 11, 2025, 6:11 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region
Florida

Primary Investigator

Name
Samir Huseynov
Affiliation
Auburn University
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-07-08
End date
2026-01-01
Keywords
Behavior, Environment & Energy
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
In this project, we will replicate Huseynov (2024) in the Florida context. We will recruit Floridian homeowners on Prolific for the study and ask them to predict 6-month-ahead annual house price changes in their zip code. Belief elicitation will follow Huseynov (2024). Specifically, we will elicit priors and posteriors, and in between, we will provide information treatments. The Baseline treatment will state some general facts about the Florida housing market. The Baseline + Economic treatment will provide some general economic factors on top of the Baseline treatment. The Baseline + Environment treatment will provide information about environmental changes in Florida, in addition to the Baseline treatment’s text. The main study will be conducted in early July. We will also conduct a follow-up study à la Huseynov (2024) during the hurricane season, with the timing of the follow-up depending on weather developments.

Expected outcomes:

We will first analyze how zip-code-level priors are sensitive to previous hurricane exposure. We will collect zip-code-level rain and flood data and analyze whether priors exhibit any impacts from the previous hurricane cycle. We expect high-exposure zip codes to show a more pessimistic market price change outlook.

We will also analyze how differential zip-code-level hurricane exposure affects belief updating in response to the treatment conditions. We expect high-exposure zip codes to show more pessimistic market price change outlooks in the Baseline + Environment treatment compared to the Baseline.

We also expect the overall impact of the Baseline + Economic treatment to be smaller than that of the Baseline + Environment treatment in zip codes with high exposure to previous hurricanes.

Expected outcomes for the follow-up:

We will analyze whether our treatment effects still persist.

We will examine how previous exposure to hurricanes affects belief updating in the face of a developing new hurricane.

We will use Facebook’s network connectedness values (i.e., the FB Social Connectedness Index) to investigate how living in a more connected network node affects priors and posteriors. This is particularly interesting for testing how well-informed homeowners are.

Reference:
Huseynov, Samir. "Overreaction in House Price Expectations." Available at SSRN 4863350 (2024).
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Huseynov, Samir. 2025. "Housing Market Expectations and Environment ." AEA RCT Registry. July 11. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16346-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
In this project, we will replicate Huseynov (2024) in the Florida context. We will recruit Floridian homeowners on Prolific for the study and ask them to predict 6-month-ahead annual house price changes in their zip code. Belief elicitation will follow Huseynov (2024). Specifically, we will elicit priors and posteriors, and in between, we will provide information treatments. The Baseline treatment will state some general facts about the Florida housing market. The Baseline + Economic treatment will provide some general economic factors on top of the Baseline treatment. The Baseline + Environment treatment will provide information about environmental changes in Florida, in addition to the Baseline treatment’s text. The main study will be conducted in early July. We will also conduct a follow-up study à la Huseynov (2024) during the hurricane season, with the timing of the follow-up depending on weather developments.
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2025-07-08
Intervention End Date
2026-01-01

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
xpected outcomes:

We will first analyze how zip-code-level priors are sensitive to previous hurricane exposure. We will collect zip-code-level rain and flood data and analyze whether priors exhibit any impacts from the previous hurricane cycle. We expect high-exposure zip codes to show a more pessimistic market price change outlook.

We will also analyze how differential zip-code-level hurricane exposure affects belief updating in response to the treatment conditions. We expect high-exposure zip codes to show more pessimistic market price change outlooks in the Baseline + Environment treatment compared to the Baseline.

We also expect the overall impact of the Baseline + Economic treatment to be smaller than that of the Baseline + Environment treatment in zip codes with high exposure to previous hurricanes.

Expected outcomes for the follow-up:

We will analyze whether our treatment effects still persist.

We will examine how previous exposure to hurricanes affects belief updating in the face of a developing new hurricane.

We will use Facebook’s network connectedness values (i.e., the FB Social Connectedness Index) to investigate how living in a more connected network node affects priors and posteriors. This is particularly interesting for testing how well-informed homeowners are.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We will elicit priors and posteriors, and in between, we will provide information treatments. The Baseline treatment will state some general facts about the Florida housing market. The Baseline + Economic treatment will provide some general economic factors on top of the Baseline treatment. The Baseline + Environment treatment will provide information about environmental changes in Florida, in addition to the Baseline treatment’s text. The main study will be conducted in early July. We will also conduct a follow-up study à la Huseynov (2024) during the hurricane season, with the timing of the follow-up depending on weather developments.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
by a computer
Randomization Unit
individual homeowners
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
1100
Sample size: planned number of observations
1100
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
na
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials