Intervention (Hidden)
The survey has the following structure.
Stage 1: opening statements, brief information about the war in Ukraine, the functioning of the NATO, Germany’s membership in the NATO and the mutual assistance clause for NATO member states in case of a military conflict. The survey opens with neutral informational statements about the Russian invasion into the whole of Ukraine in 2022, the NATO, Germany’s membership in the NATO and the mutual assistance clause for NATO member states that suggests an involvement in potential future military conflicts with Russia. The opening statements are shown to all experimental groups alike and read as follows:
“In February 2022, Russia launched a military attack on the whole of Ukraine. The following questions concern your personal assessment of the risk of a direct military conflict with Russia.”
“Information: NATO is an alliance of currently 32 countries in Europe and North America that promise each other military assistance if one of their members is attacked militarily. Germany is part of NATO.”
On the same screen, we show a world map indicating the location of Russia and NATO member states.
“Information: If a NATO country (e.g. Poland, Finland, Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania) were to be attacked militarily by Russia, all NATO member states – including Germany – would be required to provide each other with military assistance.”
Stage 1 information are shown to all respondents, irrespective of experimental group.
Stage 2: prior beliefs on expert risk assessments about the likelihood of a direct military conflict between the NATO and Russia, and the possibility of a military conflict with Russia on German territory. Stage 2 begins by asking participants what they believe experts think about the likelihood of a direct military conflict between Russia and a NATO member, and between Russia and Germany on German territory. These questions are introduced by a neutral statement informing respondents about the source of the expert assessments used in the information treatments. Stage 2 items are shown to all respondents, irrespective of experimental group.
Stage 3: randomized information provision
EXPERIMENTAL GROUP 1: Control group: No information provided
EXPERIMENTAL GROUP 2: Treatment 1. Respondents see the following screen: “Important information! The military experts surveyed estimate on average that the probability of a direct military conflict between NATO and Russia within the next 10 years is 48%. Your estimate <<Your Choice>> % vs. estimate of the military experts: 48%”
Additional bar chart with individual vs. experts’ estimates in different colors.
EXPERIMENTAL GROUP 3: Treatment 2. Respondents see the following screen: “Important information! The military experts surveyed estimate on average that the probability of a direct military conflict between Germany and Russia on German soil within the next 10 years is 28%. Your estimate <<Your Choice>> % vs. estimate of the military experts: 28%”
Additional bar chart with individual vs. experts’ estimates in different colors.
Stage 4: Posterior Beliefs
Items are shown to all respondents, irrespective of experimental group. We show two questions asking for personal assessment of the risk of a direct military conflict with Russia within the next 10 years (first refers to NATO vs. Russia, second to Germany vs. Russia on German territory)
Stage 5: Post-treatment outcomes
Items are shown to all respondents, irrespective of the experimental group. We show questions asking for: (1) concerns about a military conflict with Russia, (2) demand for general defence capability (importance that Germany becomes more resilient to external threats; real stake question that asks about the willingness to support an appeal to the German government), (3) defence expenditures (defence spending as % of GDP, financing of defence expenditures, support of amendment for unlimited defence spending), (4) preferences over public expenditures (trade-off between different spending areas), (5) preferences over defence policies (reinstatement of compulsory military service; increasing the number of active soldiers in the Bundeswehr; creation of a common European Union army; increase in German military aid for Ukraine; introduction of compulsory community service; stronger state intervention against hybrid attacks by Russia on Germany), (6) preferences for international (EU) defence cooperation (security and defence policy; economic policy; civil protection; foreign policy), (7) willingness to personally defend the country, preference that fellow citizens defend the country (order of both questions independently randomized),
Stage 6: Follow-up Survey
Items are shown to all respondents, irrespective of the experimental group.
A few days after the main survey, respondents that gave their consent are invited to participate in a follow-up survey. In the wording, the follow-up is not explicitly referring to the main survey conducted a few days earlier but intentionally held neutral. After a brief introduction, we ask questions on gender, age and state of residence to check for consistency and start the survey. We then repeat stage 4 on posterior beliefs. We then ask the following outcome questions again: (1) concerns about a military conflict, (2) demand for general defence capability, (3) financing of defence expenditures, (4) preferences over defence policies.
To reduce the occurrence of multiple hypothesis testing and to increase precision of treatment-effect estimates, our primary analysis will use indices summarizing the individual question items. In particular, we will summarize the items in outcomes 1 into one “concerns” index, outcomes 2-7 as a “support for defence policies” index (except for outcome 3 and 4), and outcomes 3 and 4 into one “preferences for defence spending” index (without the defence spending financing question). We will also show effects on all individual outcomes in additional analyses.