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A field experiment on energy conservation with manipulation

Last registered on July 28, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
A field experiment on energy conservation with manipulation
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016404
Initial registration date
July 24, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
July 28, 2025, 9:14 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Japan
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Takunori Ishihara
Affiliation
Kyoto University of Advanced Science
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Takanori Ida
PI Affiliation
Kyoto University
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Shusaku Sasaki
PI Affiliation
The University of Osaka
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Daido Kido
PI Affiliation
Otaru University of Commerce
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-07-25
End date
2026-03-31
Keywords
Behavior, Environment & Energy
Additional Keywords
Energy-Saving, Manipulation
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial is based on or builds upon one or more prior RCTs.
Abstract
This study implements an experimental design in which the probability of future treatments depends on each household’s past energy-saving performance. It aims to investigate how the optimal allocation of treatments changes depending on whether future assignments are predictable or not. In addition, the study seeks to design allocation rules that maximize social welfare while accounting for consumers’ endogenous behavioral responses. To this end, field experiments and surveys involving energy-saving events will be conducted during both the summer and winter of 2025.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Ida, Takanori et al. 2025. "A field experiment on energy conservation with manipulation." AEA RCT Registry. July 28. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16404-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
As a treatment measure, the study introduces a rebate (monetary incentive) based on electricity savings during peak hours (5:00 PM to 9:00 PM). The baseline for calculating the rebate is each household’s average electricity consumption during the same month of the previous year (August and December, respectively). The event periods are set to seven days in both summer (August 18–24) and winter (December 15–21).

If a household’s electricity consumption during the event period falls below the baseline, a reward of 200 yen per kilowatt-hour saved will be provided, up to a maximum of 3,500 yen. If the average consumption during the event period exceeds the baseline, the household will be treated as having achieved zero savings and will not receive any reward.
Intervention Start Date
2025-08-18
Intervention End Date
2025-12-21

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
electricity consumption
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
A total of 2,500 households, randomly selected from across Japan, will be divided into the following 10 groups to participate in a two-period (summer and winter) treatment experiment.

[1] Groups with Fixed Treatment Assignments (Groups 1–4)
Treatment status in each period is predetermined and does not depend on household behavior:

Group Period 1 (Summer) Period 2 (Winter)
UU No treatment No treatment
UT No treatment Treatment
TU Treatment No treatment
TT Treatment Treatment

[2] Groups with Behavior-Contingent Treatment Assignments (Groups 5–10)
Households receive treatment in the second period only if their electricity-saving rate in the first period exceeds a specified target (10%, 30%, or 50%):

Group Period 1 Treatment Savings Target Period 2 Treatment
U(C=10%) No 10% Conditional
U(C=30%) No 30% Conditional
U(C=50%) No 50% Conditional
T(C=10%) Yes 10% Conditional
T(C=30%) Yes 30% Conditional
T(C=50%) Yes 50% Conditional

Information about treatment assignment and baseline electricity usage will be communicated to each household via email or other means at the beginning of each event month and again during the event period.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
stratified randomization done in office by a computer
Households will be clustered by dividing their past summer and winter electricity consumption based on the median, classifying them into groups with consumption above or below the median for each season.
Randomization Unit
households
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
N/A
Sample size: planned number of observations
2,500 households (expected)
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
250 households (expected)
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
To design the current experiment, we referred to the results of a previous study that offered rebates and calculated the required sample size. We then considered the number of households we could realistically secure in the field and decided to assign 250 households to each group. The previous study set a rebate of 100 yen per kWh and observed an average electricity reduction of 5%. Based on this result, achieving statistical significance at the 5% level with 250 households per group requires at least a 7.5% reduction. A 100　yen rebate is unlikely to generate such an effect. Therefore, we increased the rebate to 200 yen per kWh in order to promote a greater reduction in electricity usage and reach the targeted effect size.
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Committee on Experimental Ethics, Inter-Graduate School Program for Sustainable Development and Survivable Societies, Kyoto University, Japan.
IRB Approval Date
2025-06-21
IRB Approval Number
202503
Analysis Plan

Analysis Plan Documents