The Consequences of Cyclical Liquidity Shortfalls among Cash Transfer Beneficiaries

Last registered on July 28, 2025

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The Consequences of Cyclical Liquidity Shortfalls among Cash Transfer Beneficiaries
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016422
Initial registration date
July 20, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
July 28, 2025, 8:26 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Affiliation
Tufts University

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
Middlebury College

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-10-23
End date
2026-07-31
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Cognitive performance among cash transfer recipients varies systematically with payment timing, but the mechanisms driving these patterns remain poorly understood. We investigate these channels through a field experiment leveraging quasi-random variation in payment dates for Brazil’s Bolsa Família program—the world’s largest cash transfer program. To identify how liquidity constraints affect adolescent cognition, we survey students at different points in their families’ monthly payment cycle. Specifically, we compare outcomes of students 0–7 days after their families receive transfers with those 23–30 days post-payment, when households approach their next transfer. We examine six mechanisms: nutrition, student labor supply, sleep, psychological well-being, time allocation, and household conflict. Complementary surveys document how households navigate end-of-cycle constraints through consumption smoothing, credit access, labor supply adjustments, and other coping strategies. Our findings inform the optimal design of transfer payment schedules.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Eizmendi Larrinaga, Axel and Germán Reyes. 2025. "The Consequences of Cyclical Liquidity Shortfalls among Cash Transfer Beneficiaries." AEA RCT Registry. July 28. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16422-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We study Brazil’s Bolsa Família conditional cash transfer program, which provides monthly payments to low-income families. We leverage random variation in the timing of Bolsa Família (BF) transfers each month to estimate the effects of short-term liquidity constraints on adolescent outcomes.

The BF program disburses transfers on different days each month based on the last digit of a household's randomly assigned beneficiary identification number (NIS). We time surveys in the middle of the staggered payment schedule in a way that randomly generates a treatment and a control group. The treatment group are students whose families recently received their transfer (0–7 days ago), who we also denote as the "early cycle group." The control group are students in households nearing the end of their payment cycle (23–30 days since their last transfer), who we refer to as the "late cycle group."

Intervention Start Date
2025-10-23
Intervention End Date
2026-01-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Primary outcome:
• Cognitive performance (standardized performance on cognitive tests).

Mechanisms primary outcomes:
• Nutrition and Energy (food consumption, meal frequency)
• Student labor supply (hours worked, type of work)
• Sleep patterns (duration, quality)
• Psychological well-being (stress, anxiety measures)
• Time allocation (study time, care for others in household, labor supply)
• Household environment (family stress, resource availability)
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Household-level outcomes:

• Consumption smoothing behaviors
• Credit access and informal borrowing
• Labor supply adjustments
• Social network utilization
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Our design leverages naturally occurring, random variation in the timing of Bolsa Família (BFP) transfers to estimate the effects of short-term liquidity constraints on adolescent outcomes. BFP disburses transfers on different days each month based on the last digit of a household's randomly assigned beneficiary identification number (NIS). This staggered payment schedule allows us to compare, within each school and survey day, students whose families recently received their transfer (0–7 days ago), who we denote as the "early cycle group" with those nearing the end of their payment cycle (23–30 days since last transfer), who we refer to as the "late cycle group." We conduct student surveys in 30 public secondary schools across São Paulo, selected in collaboration with the State Secretariat of Education for their high concentration of BFP beneficiaries. By visiting schools during the middle of the monthly payment calendar, we ensure that students surveyed on the same day differ only in how recently their households received transfers. We include survey date fixed effects and pre-specified covariates to isolate the impact of liquidity availability on cognitive performance, nutrition, sleep, time use, and psychological and physical well-being.

To complement the student surveys and better understand household behavior around payday, we implement a second survey targeting the BFP recipient in each student’s household (typically the mother). These surveys allow us to estimate how household financial behavior, consumption patterns, labor supply, and coping strategies vary throughout the payment cycle.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization is based on the last digit of the randomly generated NIS (beneficiary number).
Randomization Unit
Household
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
4,000 households
Sample size: planned number of observations
4,000 students from Bolsa Familia beneficiary households, and 4,000 direct recipients of the cash transfer, for a total of 8,000 observations.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Equal split across the early cycle and late cycle treatment groups, for a total of 2,000 students and 2,000 direct recipients per group.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Tufts University
IRB Approval Date
2024-08-08
IRB Approval Number
STUDY00005198
IRB Name
Insper Research Ethics Committee
IRB Approval Date
2024-08-14
IRB Approval Number
386/2024