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Abstract This study examines whether limited access to high‑quality demand information constrains the growth of small retailers in developing countries and whether an AI‑driven mobile application that pools sales data across shops can overcome this barrier. One thousand Lusaka‑based retail shops will be randomly assigned to (i) an inventory‑management app only (control); (ii) the app plus product recommendations generated from data pooled across a relatively small number of similar shops (e.g., 10 shops); or (iii) the app plus recommendations generated from data on a larger number of similar shops (e.g., 100).. We will followup with the shops 4 times during and immediately after the intervention, and again 3 months later, in order to collect detailed data on adoption of the recommended products, weekly sales, and business income. Results will inform policies aimed at supporting SME productivity through digital data‑sharing platforms. This study examines whether limited access to high‑quality demand and supplier information constrains the growth of small retailers in developing countries and whether an AI‑driven mobile application that pools sales data across shops can overcome this barrier. It will further test what the returns are to increasing the size of the data pool. One thousand Lusaka‑based retail shops will be randomly assigned in equal proportion to (i) an inventory‑management app only (control); (ii) the app plus lower-priced supplier recommendations generated from data pooled across a relatively small number of similar shops; or iii) the app plus lower-priced supplier recommendations generated from data pooled across a relatively large number of similar shops; or (iv) the app plus product recommendations generated from data on similar shops. Further, within the arm assigned to receive product recommendations, half the stores will receive a buy-back offer to mitigate against the risk of adopting new products that do not sell well. We will followup with the shops 3 times during and immediately after the intervention, and again 3 months later, in order to collect detailed data on adoption of the recommended products and suppliers, weekly sales, and business income. Results will inform policies aimed at supporting SME productivity through digital data‑sharing platforms.
Trial Start Date August 07, 2025 February 05, 2026
Trial End Date June 20, 2026 August 09, 2026
Last Published August 08, 2025 06:55 AM February 04, 2026 09:16 PM
Intervention (Public) Intervention Components: 1. Inventory‑management mobile application (basic logging & analytics). Shops receive in‑person onboarding and three weeks of usage incentives to ensure high app engagement. 2. AI‑generated product recommendations based on pooled sales data from a small or large pool of similar shops. 3. Information about the size of the pool of shops used for generating the recommendations Intervention Components: 1. Inventory‑management mobile application (basic logging & analytics) 2. AI-generated supplier recommendations 3. AI‑generated product recommendations
Intervention Start Date September 15, 2025 March 23, 2026
Intervention End Date October 31, 2025 May 24, 2026
Primary Outcomes (End Points) We will specify our primary and secondary outcomes in a pre-analysis plan, which will be lodged before followup data collection begins. We plan to capture data on the following: Adoption of the recommended product Sales & gross margin of recommended and existing products Total sales revenue Total business income / profit Changes in suppliers or supplier search behaviour Number of customers (footfall) Number of distinct products stocked & inventory turnover Introduction of other new products We will specify our primary and secondary outcomes in a pre-analysis plan, which will be lodged before followup data collection begins. We plan to capture data on the following: Adoption of the recommended product Purchases from the recommended supplier Sales & gross margin of recommended and existing products Total sales revenue Total business income / profit Changes in suppliers or supplier search behaviour Number of customers (footfall) Number of distinct products stocked & inventory turnover Introduction of other new products
Experimental Design (Public) An individually randomised controlled trial with 1,000 shops divided equally across three arms. Treatment Arms: o T0 (Control) – App only o T1 – App + recommendations from a smaller pool of comparable shops o T2 – App + recommendations from a larger pool of comparable shops Cross‑Randomisation: Within T1 and T2, shops are randomised as to whether the pool size (small vs large) is explicitly revealed. An individually randomised controlled trial with 1,000 shops divided equally across three arms. Treatment Arms: T0 (Control) – App only T1 – App + supplier recommendations from a smaller pool of comparable shops T2 – App + supplier recommendations from a larger pool of comparable shops T3 - App + product recommendations from comparable shops Cross‑Randomisation: Within T3, we will randomise whether stores also receive a buy-back offer, protecting them against the risk of the recommended product not selling well. All shops receive in‑person onboarding and three weeks of usage incentives to ensure high app engagement.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms T0 = 333 firms; T1 = 333 firms; T2 = 334 firms T0 = 250 firms; T1 = 250 firms; T2 = 250 firms; T3 = 250 firms
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