Choice-induced Misspecified Mental Models: A Follow-up Study

Last registered on August 04, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Choice-induced Misspecified Mental Models: A Follow-up Study
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016509
Initial registration date
August 04, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
August 04, 2025, 6:34 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Qiaofeng (Tony) Fan
Affiliation
The University of Alabama
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-08-04
End date
2025-10-31
Keywords
Behavior, Lab
Additional Keywords
mental models, belief formation
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
The current study is part of a project that proposes, tests, and seeks to understand a novel behavioral hypothesis: After agents control or manipulate a certain factor — their “choice variable” — to potentially influence a payoff-relevant outcome, they tend to form mental models
that overestimate the causal impact of their choice variable on the focal outcome. I term this hypothesis the Choice-induced Model Distortion hypothesis.

In an earlier study, I validated the Choice-induced Model Distortion hypothesis and provided some initial evidence for its underlying mechanisms. In particular, I ruled out selective learning about the choice variable as the main driver of the belief distortion. The current study extends the earlier study with a few additional treatments, to further disentangle several competing mechanisms that potentially generate the belief distortion effect, and to establish the robustness of the effect to certain variations in the design.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Fan, Qiaofeng (Tony). 2025. "Choice-induced Misspecified Mental Models: A Follow-up Study." AEA RCT Registry. August 04. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16509-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Participants learn from a multivariate dataset before making choices involving one randomly selected variable and stating their beliefs about the data-generating process (i.e., relationships between variables). See the pre-analysis plan for more detail.
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2025-08-04
Intervention End Date
2025-10-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Propensity to state different variables (attributes) as outcome-relevant, in multiple choice or elicited model (function) forms; probabilistic beliefs about the chances that different variables (attributes) are outcome-relevant.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The current study consists of four different treatments:
(1) Baseline treatment: implements the study procedures (learning stage, choice task, belief elicitations) without change.
(2) RevealChoiceInconsequential treatment: In this treatment, right after the choice task, but before the belief elicitations, participants are informed that the belief elicitations (instead of the choice task) has been randomly selected to determine their final bonus.
(3) BeliefBeforeChoice treatment: This treatment essentially reverses the order of the choice task and the belief elicitations.
(4) FullDataset treatment: This treatment examines the robustness of the belief distortion effect to making the learning stage more transparent and informative to participants.

See the pre-analysis plan for more detail.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
N/A
Sample size: planned number of observations
3200
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
800 in each treatment
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Institutional Review Board at the University of Alabama
IRB Approval Date
2025-07-22
IRB Approval Number
24-01-7267-A
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials