The Effect of Financial Market Uncertainty on Household Investment Decisions

Last registered on August 08, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The Effect of Financial Market Uncertainty on Household Investment Decisions
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016521
Initial registration date
August 05, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
August 08, 2025, 7:03 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
China
Region
Country
Germany
Region
Country
Japan
Region
Country
United States of America
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Yoshiyuki Nakazono
Affiliation
Yokohama City University
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Minoru Masujima
PI Affiliation
SBI Financial and Economic Research Institute
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PI Name
Ryoichi Namba
PI Affiliation
SBI Financial and Economic Research Institute
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PI Name
Kento Tango
PI Affiliation
Yokohama City University
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PI Name
Jun Takahashi
PI Affiliation
Yokohama City University
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-08-25
End date
2025-10-17
Keywords
Finance & Microfinance
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We examine the effect of financial market uncertainty on household investment decisions.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Masujima, Minoru et al. 2025. "The Effect of Financial Market Uncertainty on Household Investment Decisions." AEA RCT Registry. August 08. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16521-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2025-08-25
Intervention End Date
2025-10-17

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Effects on risky-asset and crypto-asset purchases and desired portfolio allocations
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We randomly assigned participants to either a control group or one of six treatment groups, resulting in seven groups in total.
Experimental Design Details
We randomly assigned participants to either a control group or one of six treatment groups, resulting in seven groups in total. The control group received no information. The treatment groups were provided with different types of information as follows: (1) historical returns of Bitcoin prices; (2) historical volatility of Bitcoin prices; (3) both historical returns and volatility of Bitcoin prices; (4) historical returns of a stock index; (5) historical volatility of a stock index; and (6) both historical returns and volatility of a stock index.
Randomization Method
Stratified randomization by a survey company. The strata are based on sex (male/female) and age (20-29/30-39/40-49/50-59/60-79).
Randomization Unit
Individuals
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
7 groups
Sample size: planned number of observations
20,000-30,000 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
15,000-20,000 individuals
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
SBI Financial and Economic Research Institute
IRB Approval Date
2025-07-30
IRB Approval Number
N/A
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials