War risk and household financial decisions

Last registered on August 22, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
War risk and household financial decisions
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016579
Initial registration date
August 20, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
August 22, 2025, 6:02 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Timo Wochner
Affiliation
ETH Zurich
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Klaus Gründler
PI Affiliation
Universität Kassel, ifo Institute
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-08-25
End date
2027-01-01
Keywords
Behavior, Finance & Microfinance
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We study how perceived risk of war influences households' savings and investments decisions. Relying on a (prior) survey among German experts, we intent to exogenously shift German households' perceptions of the likelihood of a war event happening in Germany through experts statements. We then link perceived war risk to a range of investment and saving decisions.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Gründler, Klaus and Timo Wochner. 2025. "War risk and household financial decisions." AEA RCT Registry. August 22. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16579-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We rely on a survey (conducted in Q1 2025) among experts about their perceived risk of war in Germany over the next 5 years for an information provision experiment with German households. A high forecast group receives the forecast of a pessimistic expert (i.e. with a high predicted probability of a war event happening), while a low forecast group receives the forecast of an optimistic expert (i.e. with a low predicted probability of a war event happening). Eliciting prior and posterior perceptions, we intent to shift households' war risk perceptions.
Intervention Start Date
2025-08-25
Intervention End Date
2025-09-15

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
War risk (first stage); Saving and spending decisions (second stage)
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
In the first stage, we exogenously shift respondents' war risk perceptions. We then rely on a 2SLS-design to examine how war risk influences saving and investment decisions.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Risk aversion and time preferences
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We rely on a survey (conducted in Q1 2025) among experts about their perceived risk of war in Germany over the next 5 years for our information provision experiment with German households. A high forecast group receives the forecast of a pessimistic expert (i.e. with a high predicted probability of a war event happening), while a low forecast group receives the forecast of an optimistic expert (i.e. with a low predicted probability of a war event happening). Eliciting prior and posterior perceptions, we intent to shift households' war risk perceptions (first stage). We then use a 2SLS-design to examine how war risk influences households' saving and investment decisions. Finally, we elicit respondents' risk aversion and time preferences to test for heterogeneity and mechanisms. We re-contact the participants in a second wave, approximately one week after our intervention, to test for persistence of potential effects.










Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
randomization done by Qualtrics software
Randomization Unit
Individuals
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
2 groups of individuals (low and high forecast arm)
Sample size: planned number of observations
1000-1100 individuals in the first wave, roughly 600-700 in the second wave
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Equal split: 500-550 individuals in the high and 500-550 individuals in the low forecast arm
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan