Tax amnesties in low-income countries: Evidence from administrative and experimental data in Uganda

Last registered on September 03, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Tax amnesties in low-income countries: Evidence from administrative and experimental data in Uganda
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016605
Initial registration date
September 01, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
September 03, 2025, 9:29 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Yannick Markhof
Affiliation
United Nations University
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Rose Camille Vincent
PI Affiliation
University of Utrecht
PI Name
Stephan Dietrich
PI Affiliation
Maastricht University

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2023-11-30
End date
2026-08-31
Keywords
Finance & Microfinance, Firms & Productivity, Governance
Additional Keywords
Taxation
JEL code(s)
H26, H71
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial is based on or builds upon one or more prior RCTs.
Abstract
We study the effectiveness of tax amnesties in low-income countries in the context of a tax amnesty law passed by the parliament of Uganda in 2023. Using comprehensive administrative records on liabilities before and payments into the amnesty, two randomized controlled trials in which we send uptake nudges to eligible debtors, as well as original survey data we collect from 1,922 firms, we study uptake of the amnesty, its fiscal impact and distributional consequences, as well as debtors‘ underlying perceptions and attitudes.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Dietrich, Stephan, Yannick Markhof and Rose Camille Vincent. 2025. "Tax amnesties in low-income countries: Evidence from administrative and experimental data in Uganda." AEA RCT Registry. September 03. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16605-1.0
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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We conduct two interventions. In November and December 2023, we send uptake nudges to 6,479 firms in the form of two text messages highlighting the amnesty and that enforcement of unpaid debt will resume upon the amnesty‘s expiration on December 31, 2023. Exploiting the unanticipated extension of the amnesty, we conduct a second uptake nudge intervention in December 2024 with 90,000 eligible debtors highlighting either (i) the existence of the amnesty (information, active control), (ii) information + partial payment option, (iii) information + threat of compounding debt, (iv) information + debt‘s threat to business continuity, (v) information + return of enforcement action after the amnesty deadline. Using detailed administrative data on debtors and payments into the amnesty, we study the effect of our text-message nudges on amnesty uptake and payments.
Intervention Start Date
2023-11-30
Intervention End Date
2024-12-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
amnesty uptake; amount paid into the amnesty
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Amnesty uptake is defined as any payment into the amnesty from an eligible debtor. Payment amounts are conditional on uptake.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
In the first experiment, we randomly select 6,479 medium-sized, registered enterprises in Kampala to receive our messages or comprise the control group. As we did not have information on debtors at the time, this sample consists partially of firms without debt which we will filter out. Treatment firms receive two text messages, one on Nov 30, 2023 and one on Dec 14. The second experiment randomly selects 90,000 eligible debtors in Kampala. Each debtor receives a text message on Dec 20, 2024.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
computer (Stata)
Randomization Unit
individual firm
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
Experiment 1: 6,479 medium-sized, registered enterprises in Kampala
Experiment 2: 90,000 eligible debtors in Kampala
Sample size: planned number of observations
Experiment 1: 6,479 medium-sized, registered enterprises in Kampala Experiment 2: 90,000 eligible debtors in Kampala
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Experiment 1: 3,240 control, 3,239 treatment
Experiment 2: 18,000 in each of the five treatment arms
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
ETH Zurich Ethics Commission
IRB Approval Date
2023-08-07
IRB Approval Number
EK 2023 - N - 187
Analysis Plan

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