Extreme Weather Events and the Support for Democracy

Last registered on August 25, 2025
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Extreme Weather Events and the Support for Democracy
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016615
Initial registration date
August 24, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
August 25, 2025, 8:50 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Zambia
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Nicolas Cerkez
Affiliation
Oxford University
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-10-01
End date
2026-03-31
Keywords
Environment & Energy, Governance
Additional Keywords
climate change, support for democracy, non-democratic systems
JEL code(s)
Q54, Q56, P16, P48
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
A growing body of evidence suggests that voters systematically punish incumbents for adverse exogenous shocks, even when these shocks are beyond the government’s control (e.g., Wolfers, 2002; Leigh, 2009; Healy et al., 2010; Achen and Bartels, 2012, 2017). However, while much of this literature focuses on individual leaders, less is known about whether such shocks also shape broader preferences for political systems. Do citizens revise their support for democracy in response to external hardships, such as droughts? Despite the vast literature on democratic preferences, this question has, to the best of my knowledge, not been systematically explored. This study addresses these issues through a phone survey with an embedded information experiment in Zambia, a country that experienced a major drought in 2024.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Cerkez, Nicolas. 2025. "Extreme Weather Events and the Support for Democracy." AEA RCT Registry. August 25. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16615-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2025-10-01
Intervention End Date
2025-11-14

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
A dummy variable indicating whether individuals support democracy or prefer alternative models of governance
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The survey will be conducted in Zambia. The study will embed a randomized controlled trial (RCT) in which participants are randomly assigned to either a treatment or a control group. Individuals in the treatment group will be prompted to briefly reflect on their experiences during the 2024 drought in Zambia, one of the most severe in decades. Participants in the control group will not receive this prompt, serving as a baseline for comparison.
Experimental Design Details
The survey will be conducted in 3-4 districts within Lusaka Province, Zambia, from September to November 2025. The study will embed a randomized controlled trial (RCT) in which participants are randomly assigned to either a treatment or a control group. Individuals in the treatment group will be prompted to briefly reflect on their experiences during the 2024 drought in Zambia, one of the most severe in decades. Participants in the control group will not receive this prompt, serving as a baseline for comparison.

The survey aims to reach 2,000 individuals, with a minimum guaranteed sample size of 1,700. Power calculations, based on Zambia-specific estimates from my previous work (Cerkez, 2025) - where exposure to a drought reduces support for democracy by 0.210 standard deviations in Zambia - indicate that a minimum of 720 participants (360 per group) is required to detect the effect. The larger sample size accounts for planned heterogeneity analyses and ensures sufficient statistical power across subgroups.

Randomization will be stratified across three or four strata defined by districts to ensure balance. Within each stratum, participants will be selected to approximate the voting-age population in terms of key characteristics such as age, gender, and education. After selection, participants within each stratum will be randomly assigned to treatment or control group.
Randomization Method
Randomization done in an office by a computer.
Randomization Unit
The unit of randomization is the individual.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
2000 individuals (within the 3-4 districts/strata in Zambia)
Sample size: planned number of observations
2000 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
1000 individuals are in treatment group
1000 individuals are in control group
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Oxford University Research Ethics Committee
IRB Approval Date
2025-08-14
IRB Approval Number
International Development (ODID) DREC - 2078547
Analysis Plan

There is information in this trial unavailable to the public. Use the button below to request access.

Request Information

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

There is information in this trial unavailable to the public. Use the button below to request access.

Request Information

Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials