Biased belief updating and memory: The role of confidence, extension

Last registered on September 03, 2025
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Biased belief updating and memory: The role of confidence, extension
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016616
Initial registration date
August 26, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
September 03, 2025, 8:27 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

There is information in this trial unavailable to the public. Use the button below to request access.

Request Information

Primary Investigator

Name
Hedda Nielsen
Affiliation
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Julia Baumann
PI Affiliation
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, WZB Berlin
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-08-26
End date
2026-03-31
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
Belief updating, Confidence, Bayes' rule, Motivated beliefs
JEL code(s)
C11, C90, D83, D91
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This project investigates the role of over- and underconfidence in belief updating and recall of feedback, and expands on a previous trial (AEARCTR-0012470). While previous research finds mixed results for how positive and negative feedback impacts belief updating and recall, the overall focus has been on how (asymmetric) belief updating affects individuals’ confidence. Instead, we ask how exogenously inducing high or low confidence impacts feedback processing. In particular, in this trial we study how cognitive depletion and mood may drive the impact of confidence on belief updating.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Baumann, Julia and Hedda Nielsen. 2025. "Biased belief updating and memory: The role of confidence, extension." AEA RCT Registry. September 03. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16616-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2025-08-26
Intervention End Date
2025-12-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Beliefs about one's relative performance, feelings of cognitive depletion and mood
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The study consists of two waves. In Wave 1, we will first measure if an IQ task shifts cognitive depletion and if it shifts individuals’ mood. In Wave 2, we will study study whether exogenously manipulating cognitive depletion or mood (1) has an impact on belief updating and memory and (2) can explain previously identified patterns for how confidence shapes belief updating.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
by computer
Randomization Unit
at individual level. In Wave 1, subjects are randomized (with equal probability) into one of two order of mood and cognitive depletion measurement. In Wave 2, subjects are randomized (with equal probability) into either an affective or a neutral condition for the mood manipulation or into either a depleting or a neutral condition for the cognitive depletion manipulation.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
200 (Wave 1) + 500 (Wave 2)
Sample size: planned number of observations
700
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
100 (Wave 1) + 250 (Wave 2)
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Ethics committee of the School of Business and Economics of Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
IRB Approval Date
2025-07-14
IRB Approval Number
2025-04
Analysis Plan

There is information in this trial unavailable to the public. Use the button below to request access.

Request Information