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Field
Experimental Design (Public)
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Before
Study Type: Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT)
Setting: Small retail businesses in Lagos, Nigeria markets
Sample Size: Approximately 400 firms
Randomization: Firms will be randomly assigned to one of three treatment arms:
Control Group (expected n=180): Firms receive basic information about the available solar products.
Information Treatment (expected n=180): Firms receive the same as the control group plus targeted information about generator fuel efficiency relative to load capacity and practical guidance on optimal solar use cases.
Free Trial Treatment (expected n=40): Firms receive a one-month free trial of a solar system before participating in the price elicitation mechanism.
Price Mechanism: All participants will engage in a Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) mechanism, after free trial month has elapsed, with randomized price offers to create exogenous variation in solar system costs and adoption rates.
Data Collection:
Baseline survey measuring current energy use, business operations, and characteristics
Monthly phone surveys tracking energy costs, operating hours, and generator usage over 6-8 months
Endline survey 8 months after baseline
Air quality monitoring using sensors placed in market locations
Timeline: 1 September 2025 to 31 July 2026
Primary Partner: Oolu-Ignite Solar (West African solar provider)
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After
Study Type: Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT)
Setting: Small retail businesses in Lagos, Nigeria markets
Sample Size: Approximately 400 firms
Randomization: Firms will be randomly assigned to one of three treatment arms:
Control Group (expected n=180): Firms receive basic information about the available solar products.
Information Treatment (expected n=180): Firms receive the same as the control group plus targeted information about generator fuel efficiency relative to load capacity and practical guidance on optimal solar use cases.
Free Trial Treatment (expected n=40): Firms receive a one-month free trial of a solar system before participating in the price elicitation mechanism.
Price Mechanism: All participants will engage in a Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) mechanism, after free trial month has elapsed, with randomized price offers to create exogenous variation in solar system costs and adoption rates.
Saturation Design:
In addition to the individual-level randomization described above, we will implement a saturation design using price manipulation within the BDM mechanism. Firms (segmented into clusters of 3+ firms) are randomly assigned to either:
High Saturation: Firms will receive envelope prices predominantly from a low price range [3,000-7,000 NGN] (89% probability), with smaller chances of medium [40,000-60,000 NGN] (9%) or full-range prices [100-140,000 NGN] (2%)
Low Saturation: Firms will receive envelope prices predominantly from a medium price range [40,000-60,000 NGN] (89% probability), with smaller chances of low [3,000-7,000 NGN] (9%) or full-range prices [100-140,000 NGN] (2%)
Individual Randomization: Firms in small clusters (<3 firms) will receive envelope prices uniformly distributed across the full range [100-140,000 NGN]
This design creates exogenous variation in the proportion of firms likely to adopt solar within each market, allowing us to measure spillover effects from solar adoption on nearby non-adopting firms.
Data Collection:
Baseline survey measuring current energy use, business operations, and characteristics
Monthly phone surveys tracking energy costs, operating hours, and generator usage over 6-8 months
Endline survey 8 months after baseline
Air quality monitoring using sensors placed in market locations
Timeline: 1 September 2025 to 31 July 2026
Primary Partner: Oolu-Ignite Solar (West African solar provider)
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