How Do Households Adjust House Price Expectations in an Era of High Inflation? Experimental Evidence

Last registered on September 03, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
How Do Households Adjust House Price Expectations in an Era of High Inflation? Experimental Evidence
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016628
Initial registration date
August 27, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
September 03, 2025, 8:35 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Italy
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Eleonora Porreca
Affiliation
Bank of Italy
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Gioia Maria Mariani
PI Affiliation
Bank of Italy
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PI Name
Concetta Rondinelli
PI Affiliation
Bank of Italy
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Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2023-08-01
End date
2023-09-30
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
To understand how households adjust house price expectations in a period of high inflation, we implement a survey-based randomized information treatment. After eliciting respondents' priors about past and future local house price changes, we provide a random subset with factual information about past changes and then re-elicit expectations. We find that treated respondents, on average, revise expectations in the direction of the gap between revealed past house price growth and their perceptions. The extrapolation is heterogeneous: women, younger and
households more exposed to inflation surge update more, whereas no effect by local housing conditions is found. The updating behavior is asymmetric and non-linear, depending on the sign and magnitude of the difference between the treatment and perceived past price changes.
Households struggling with their finances and homeowners with mortgages extrapolate more when the realized past house price growth is much lower than they thought.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Mariani, Gioia Maria , Eleonora Porreca and Concetta Rondinelli. 2025. "How Do Households Adjust House Price Expectations in an Era of High Inflation? Experimental Evidence." AEA RCT Registry. September 03. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16628-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2023-08-01
Intervention End Date
2023-09-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Households' house price expectations
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
After eliciting respondents' priors about past and future local house price changes, we provide a random subset with factual information about past changes and then re-elicit expectations. Respondents in the treatment group were randomly selected and received the information, while those in the control group received none. Both groups are equal in size.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization was done by a computer that randomly split the sample into two groups of equal size: the treatment group and the control group.
Randomization Unit
Household
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
0
Sample size: planned number of observations
1900
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
950
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials