Social Mobility Expectations

Last registered on October 27, 2025

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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title

Social Mobility Expectations

RCT ID

AEARCTR-0016640

Initial registration date

October 23, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published

October 27, 2025, 6:30 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name

Wenyi Zhang

Affiliation

Nanyang Technological University

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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name

Yeow Hwee Chua

PI Affiliation

Nanyang Technological University

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Additional Trial Information

Status

In development

Start date

2025-10-24

End date

2026-02-28

Keywords

Behavior, Finance & Microfinance, Governance, Welfare

Additional Keywords

Housing, Social Mobility, Household

JEL code(s)

D63, D84, I24, I38, I31, J62

Secondary IDs

Prior work

This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.

Abstract

This study examines how housing market conditions and government interventions shape individuals’ social mobility expectations using a randomized control trial (RCT). Participants are randomly assigned to one of five groups, each receiving different information: extreme housing prices, cooling housing prices, government housing subsidies, or government housing taxes. The fifth group serves as the control. Our goal is to assess whether exposure to high housing prices or housing policies affects social mobility expectations. The design distinguishes wealth, affordability, and macro-signal channels through which housing markets may influence expectations about opportunity and fairness. By linking perceived mobility with economic signals from housing, this study contributes to understanding how macroeconomic conditions may shape public narratives about inequality and the prospects of moving up in society.

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation

Chua, Yeow Hwee and Wenyi Zhang. 2025. "Social Mobility Expectations." AEA RCT Registry. October 27. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16640-1.0

Sponsors & Partners

Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)

Participants will be randomly assigned to read short information statements about Singapore’s housing market or housing policies before reporting their post-information expectations of social mobility.
1. Housing Price Information
2. Housing Policy Information

Intervention Start Date

2025-10-24

Intervention End Date

2026-02-28

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)

Changes in participants’ expectations of social mobility before and after the intervention.

Primary Outcomes (explanation)

1. Own Household Mobility Expectation: Constructed from responses to two survey items asking participants to place their household on a 5-rung social mobility ladder (1 = lowest, 5 = highest). Outcome is defined as the change in self-assessed household mobility between baseline and post-treatment.
2. Perceived Intergenerational Mobility: Constructed from a question asking participants to allocate 100 children born into the bottom or top 20% of the economic ladder across the 5 rungs. Baseline and post-treatment distributions will be compared.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)

Housing Price Expectations
Macroeconomic Expectations
Government Approval

Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

1. Housing price expectations: Expected HDB resale price changes over the next 12 months (pre- vs. post-treatment).
2. Macroeconomic Expectations: Expected Singapore’s real GDP growth over the next 12 months (pre- vs. post-treatment).
3. Government Approval: Ratings of government performance and confidence across four domains: overall trust in government,
effectiveness in ensuring affordable housing, management of the economy, fairness in opportunities for children.

Experimental Design

This study uses a randomized information experiment to examine how housing conditions and policies shape people’s views of social mobility in Singapore. Participants complete a short baseline survey on their household and expectations for future opportunities. They are then randomly assigned to one of several groups: housing market information, or government subsidy for housing. After receiving the information, participants answer questions again about their future household prospects and opportunities for children from different income groups. By comparing answers across groups, the study identifies how different types of housing information influence beliefs about social mobility.

Experimental Design Details

Not available

Randomization Method

A computer algorithm from Survey Company Rakuten. Randomization is implemented through an automated computer-based assignment process using a least-fill allocation logic. This ensures near-equal allocation across the five treatment conditions while preserving randomness within ties. No researcher manually intervenes in the assignment process, and no identifying information is used in determining treatment assignment.

Randomization Unit

The unit of randomization is the individual survey participant. Each participant is independently assigned to a treatment or control group. There is no clustering or group-level randomization.

Was the treatment clustered?