Information Treatments, Hypotheticals, and Event Studies: Comparative Estimates

Participants complete a two-wave online survey surrounding a Federal Reserve policy meeting. In Wave 1, prior to the meeting, they are randomly assigned to either a control group or to one of several hypothetical policy-scenario treatments describing potential FOMC rate decisions. In Wave 2, shortly after the meeting, participants provide new forecasts and are randomly assigned to receive or not receive explicit information about the actual FOMC decision.

The study employs a two-stage experimental design to compare how hypothetical and factual monetary policy information affect expectations.

Wave 1 (pre-FOMC): Participants are randomly assigned to a control group or to one of five hypothetical vignette treatments: a 0.50pp rate hike, a 0.25pp rate hike, no change, a 0.25pp rate cut, or a 0.50pp rate cut.

Wave 2 (post-FOMC): Conducted shortly after the actual Fed decision, Wave 2 recontacts Wave 1 respondents and recruits a fresh control group. They are then randomized into control (no new information) or treatment (explicit statement of the Fed’s actual decision) group.

2025-09-10

2026-09-30

The key outcome variables measure how individuals update their macroeconomic expectations in response to treatment hypothetical versus factual policy information.

This study uses a two-wave online survey experiment conducted around a Federal Reserve policy meeting. In Wave 1 (pre-meeting), participants are randomly assigned either to a control group or to a treatment group that receives a short vignette describing one of several possible policy outcomes. Economic expectations are elicited both before and after the scenario. In Wave 2 (post-meeting), participants provide new forecasts, capturing any natural updating from the actual policy decision, and are then randomly assigned to either receive no further information or to be explicitly told the Fed’s actual decision. This design allows comparisons between hypothetical and factual information treatments, as well as natural exposure to policy news.

The study employs a two-wave survey experiment centered on the September FOMC meeting to compare how individuals update expectations in response to hypothetical versus factual monetary policy information.

In Wave 1, conducted before the FOMC meeting, participants are randomly assigned either to a control group or to one of several treatment groups that receive a short vignette describing a possible policy decision. The hypothetical scenarios vary across five possibilities: a 0.50 percentage point rate hike, a 0.25 percentage point hike, no change, a 0.25 percentage point cut, or a 0.50 percentage point cut. All participants provide baseline expectations before any intervention and then post-treatment expectations after the scenario. The elicited measures include point and probabilistic inflation forecasts at both short and long horizons, expectations for household income, unemployment, economic activity, and interest rates, as well as qualitative narratives explaining inflation beliefs.

Wave 2 is conducted shortly after the actual FOMC decision. It includes recontacted participants from Wave 1, both from the control and hypothetical scenario groups, as well as a new control group recruited after the meeting. Before any additional intervention, all Wave 2 participants provide updated forecasts, which allows measurement of natural updating that may have occurred as a result of public exposure to the Fed’s decision. Participants are then randomized into two groups: one that receives no further information, and another that is explicitly informed of the actual FOMC decision. After this information-provision stage, expectations are re-elicited using the same outcome measures as in Wave 1.

The design enables several comparisons. Within Wave 1, pre- versus post-treatment expectations identify the effect of counterfactual policy scenarios. Across waves, changes between Wave 1 baseline forecasts and Wave 2 baseline forecasts capture natural updating from real-world news exposure. Within Wave 2, pre- versus post-treatment responses allow estimation of the causal effect of factual information provision. Finally, by contrasting results across the two waves, the design directly compares the impact of hypothetical versus factual policy information on the formation of expectations.

Randomization is conducted by computer within the online survey platform. The randomization is individual-level and implemented by the survey software to ensure allocation is unbiased and not observable to participants or researchers.

The unit of randomization is the individual survey respondent.

No

Not applicable

In Wave 1, approximately 4,800 respondents in total. In Wave 2, approximately 2,100 respondents in total.

Wave 1: ≈ 800 respondents per group.
Wave 2: ≈ 700 respondents per group.