Information Treatments, Hypotheticals, and Event Studies: Comparative Estimates

Last registered on September 03, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Information Treatments, Hypotheticals, and Event Studies: Comparative Estimates
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016642
Initial registration date
August 29, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
September 03, 2025, 8:54 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
September 03, 2025, 8:57 AM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

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Primary Investigator

Name
Li Tang
Affiliation
University of Birmingham
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Carola Binder
PI Affiliation
University of Texas at Austin
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PI Name
Dimitris Georgarakos
PI Affiliation
European Central Bank
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PI Name
Pei Kuang
PI Affiliation
University of Macau
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-08-29
End date
2026-09-30
Keywords
Behavior, Finance & Microfinance, Governance
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This study investigates how individuals update macroeconomic expectations in response to counterfactual versus factual policy information. We implement a two-wave survey experiment surrounding a FOMC meeting. In Wave 1, conducted before the meeting, participants are randomly assigned to either a control group or to one of several hypothetical scenario treatments describing possible FOMC policy outcomes. Expectations about inflation, economic activity, household income, unemployment, and interest rates are elicited both before and after treatment. In Wave 2, conducted shortly after the meeting, we recontact some Wave 1 participants and recruit a new control group. Participants provide updated expectations prior to any intervention, capturing natural exposure to the Fed’s decision, and are then randomized to either receive or not receive explicit information about the actual FOMC outcome. This design enables within-person and between-group comparisons of belief updating across hypothetical and real-world contexts. The study contributes by providing the first direct evidence on how imagined policy scenarios compare to factual announcements in shaping public expectations, and by offering methodological guidance for the design of survey experiments on economic communication.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Binder, Carola et al. 2025. "Information Treatments, Hypotheticals, and Event Studies: Comparative Estimates." AEA RCT Registry. September 03. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16642-1.2
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Participants complete a two-wave online survey surrounding a Federal Reserve policy meeting. In Wave 1, prior to the meeting, they are randomly assigned to either a control group or to one of several hypothetical policy-scenario treatments describing potential FOMC rate decisions. In Wave 2, shortly after the meeting, participants provide new forecasts and are randomly assigned to receive or not receive explicit information about the actual FOMC decision.
Intervention Start Date
2025-09-10
Intervention End Date
2026-09-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The key outcome variables measure how individuals update their macroeconomic expectations in response to treatment hypothetical versus factual policy information.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
This study uses a two-wave online survey experiment conducted around a Federal Reserve policy meeting. In Wave 1 (pre-meeting), participants are randomly assigned either to a control group or to a treatment group that receives a short vignette describing one of several possible policy outcomes. Economic expectations are elicited both before and after the scenario. In Wave 2 (post-meeting), participants provide new forecasts, capturing any natural updating from the actual policy decision, and are then randomly assigned to either receive no further information or to be explicitly told the Fed’s actual decision. This design allows comparisons between hypothetical and factual information treatments, as well as natural exposure to policy news.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization is conducted by computer within the online survey platform. The randomization is individual-level and implemented by the survey software to ensure allocation is unbiased and not observable to participants or researchers.
Randomization Unit
The unit of randomization is the individual survey respondent.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
Not applicable
Sample size: planned number of observations
In Wave 1, approximately 4,800 respondents in total. In Wave 2, approximately 2,100 respondents in total.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Wave 1: ≈ 800 respondents per group.
Wave 2: ≈ 700 respondents per group.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
University of Reading Research Ethics Committee
IRB Approval Date
2025-08-20
IRB Approval Number
N/A
Analysis Plan