No Drugs or Know Drugs? Government versus Peer Messaging in Black Markets

Last registered on September 08, 2025

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
No Drugs or Know Drugs? Government versus Peer Messaging in Black Markets
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016659
Initial registration date
September 01, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
September 08, 2025, 6:21 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Affiliation
Universität Mannheim

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
University of Mannheim
PI Affiliation
University of Chicago

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-09-01
End date
2026-06-30
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Illicit drug use and abuse is one of the leading causes of injury-related deaths in the U.S., and adverse health outcomes related to drug consumption continue to rise. Anti-drug curriculums, such as “Just Say No” proved to have little measurable deterrence effects, and thus interest groups are increasingly looking at other avenues to curb risky behavior. Our experiment leverages randomized messaging campaigns, provided through online social media outlets, to determine which message, if any, is perceived as "more effective" in drug deterrence by the participants. We utilize a two-by-two research design, whereby we vary both the content of the message as well as the sender of the message. In terms of message content, participants are either presented with a harm reduction (e.g., safer use) message or an abstinence (e.g., drugs are illegal) message. In terms of the sender of the message, we vary the job title and picture of the sender to be either a government official, or someone who would be perceived by the participant as a "peer." We then ask participations to evaluate the information that they were presented with in terms of its clarity, credibility, and relevance, and we further inquire about their drug consumption intentions and safer use behavior. The outcome of our study will help inform policy interventions that may be designed to curb the illegal drug problem.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Costello, Anna, Christian Friedrich and Gerrit von Zedlitz-Neukirch. 2025. "No Drugs or Know Drugs? Government versus Peer Messaging in Black Markets." AEA RCT Registry. September 08. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16659-1.0
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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We present participants with one of four information treatments that combine one of two message framings with one of two senders:
Treatment arm 1: abstinence framing x Government
Treatment arm 2: harm reduction framing x Government
Treatment arm 3: abstinence framing x Peer
Treatment arm 4: harm reduction framing x Peer

For treatment arms 1 and 4, we randomly present participants with a side-by-side comparison of the original information treatment and one of the remaining three information treatments (randomly) after they completed the primary experiment. In this within part, we ask them for an evaluation of this alternative information treatment, showing them how they evaluated their original information treatment
Details can be found in the analysis plan.
Intervention Start Date
2025-09-01
Intervention End Date
2025-12-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Whether participants decide to collect more information
Answers to survey questions on: evaluation of information clarity, credibility, and relevance; drug consumption intentions; safer use behavior; confidence in consumption choice
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We share a link to our online survey, which is fully presented in our analysis plan, via social media accounts of organizations from the electronic dance music theme. Participants who click on the link are randomly assigned one of our treatments and fill in the survey on their personal device.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization by a computer through Qualtrics software
Randomization Unit
individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
2,400 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
2,400 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
for treatments 1 and 4, 800 individuals, for treatments 2 and 3, 400 individuals
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
All minimum detectable effect sizes based on a 10% significance level and 80% power level. All 5-point Likert scale survey items (expected standard deviation = 1.1): Minimum detectable effect size is: for treatments 1 and 4: 0.14 points on the 5-point scale for treatments 2 and 3: 0.20 points on the 5-point scale All other variables will be coded as dummies. For the power calculation, we assume the maximum standard deviation of 0.5, when the mean of the dummy variable is 0.5. Minimum detectable effect size is: for treatments 1 and 4: 6.3 percentage points for treatments 2 and 3: 8.8 percentage points
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
University of Mannheim Ethics Committee
IRB Approval Date
2025-07-23
IRB Approval Number
56/2025
Analysis Plan

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