Perceived Government Statistics Reliability and Economic Expectations

Last registered on September 08, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Perceived Government Statistics Reliability and Economic Expectations
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016676
Initial registration date
September 04, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
September 08, 2025, 7:44 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Yucheng Liang
Affiliation
Carnegie Mellon University
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-09-04
End date
2025-12-30
Keywords
Finance & Microfinance
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This study investigates the effects of perceived government statistics reliability on economic expectations.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Liang, Yucheng. 2025. "Perceived Government Statistics Reliability and Economic Expectations." AEA RCT Registry. September 08. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16676-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We provide information on the recent personnel change at the Bureau of Labor Statistics and study its effects on economic expectations.
Intervention (Hidden)
We provide the following, main information to participants:
"On August 1, 2025, following the release of the July Employment Change report, President Trump dismissed the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The President stated that the action was in response to what he viewed as unusually weak July employment numbers and significant downward revisions to the June and May estimates, which he argued reflected the Commissioner's incompetence and political bias against the President and his party. On August 11, he nominated a conservative economist, known for prior criticisms of BLS methods and reporting practices, to serve as the next Commissioner."
As a control treatment, we provide the following placebo information:
"In its July 2025 Producer Price Index (PPI) release (issued August 14, 2025), the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that it discontinued several Final Demand–Intermediate Demand (FD‑ID) indexes. These were statistical price series no longer published starting with that release. The change was described as a routine update to streamline the PPI data offerings."
We study the effects of the main information on expectations of employment statistics, Fed interest rate cuts, and stock market reactions.
Intervention Start Date
2025-09-04
Intervention End Date
2025-12-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Each outcome is elicited twice, once before and once after information treatment.
Forecast of the first-release Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) number of August 2025 and confidence in this forecast
Probability of Fed interest rate cut given a positive/negative NFP surprise
Probability of a positive 30-minute window return of S&P500 futures given a positive/negative NFP surprise
Forecast of the QCEW-updated August 2025 NFP and confidence in this forecast
Confidence in the difference between the updated and first-release August 2025 NFP
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Forecasts are elicited as a point estimate through a click on a time series chart, incentivized for accuracy
Probabilities are elicited using a slider, incentivized using the binarized scoring rule

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Self-reported prior knowledge of the provided information
Self-reported explanation for why or why not the provided information changed each forecast and probability estimate
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We elicit economic expectations related to the release of the BLS August 2025 Jobs Report before and after an information treatment where we inform participants of the recent personnel change at the BLS.
Experimental Design Details
We elicit the primary outcomes before and after the information treatment described in the intervention.
Randomization Method
Qualtrics
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
200 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
200 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
160 individuals receive main information treatment
40 individuals receive placebo information
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
CMU IRB
IRB Approval Date
2023-11-13
IRB Approval Number
2015_00000482
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials