Taxpayers' perception of fiscal consolidation

Last registered on September 15, 2025

View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title

Taxpayers' perception of fiscal consolidation

RCT ID

AEARCTR-0016754

Initial registration date

September 14, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published

September 15, 2025, 9:51 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country

Japan

Region

Primary Investigator

Name

Tomomi Miyazaki

Affiliation

Kobe University

Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name

Bernd Hayo

PI Affiliation

philipps university of marburg

Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status

In development

Start date

2024-12-20

End date

2026-08-31

Keywords

Behavior, Other

Additional Keywords

JEL code(s)

Secondary IDs

Prior work

This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.

Abstract

Japan has run government deficits every year since the early 1990s. Consequently, its debt-to-GDP ratio now exceeds 200%, the highest among developed countries. Nevertheless, many Japanese citizens do not support fiscal consolidation. Using a specially designed representative household survey of 2,600 respondents, this study investigates why taxpayers in Japan oppose fiscal rectitude. In particular, we examine how providing different information about the debt-to-GDP ratio affects their attitudes toward fiscal policy.

Our general hypothesis is that providing different information on public finance, as well as varying the way it is conveyed, is likely to influence laypersons’ attitudes towards fiscal consolidation.

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation

Hayo, Bernd and Tomomi Miyazaki. 2025. "Taxpayers' perception of fiscal consolidation." AEA RCT Registry. September 15. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16754-1.0

Sponsors & Partners

Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)

Survey participants are randomly allocated to the following four treatment groups.

Treatment 1: group given a verbal explanation of gross debt outstandings in Japan
Treatment 2: group given a verbal explanation of net debt outstandings in Japan
Treatment 3: group given an international comparison of gross debt outstandings
Treatment 4: group given an international comparison of gross debt outstandings, with a graph

Intervention Start Date

2025-09-19

Intervention End Date

2025-09-24

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)

The key intention of these treatments is to find out whether citizens' attitudes for government debt reduction is affected by the different information on debt-to-GDP ratio (see hypotheses above). Moreover, we try to compare which items people prefer to reduce or increase among government expenditures or taxes and test peoples’ opinions on the introduction of fiscal rules.

Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)

Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

We are planning the following experimental stages:

Stage 1: Baseline
Participants will complete an online questionnaire. All participants are asked about their subjective knowledge of economic figures, including the government debt-to-GDP ratio.

Stage 2: Intervention
We treat the four treatment groups with specific information in addition to a control group.

Stage 3: Endline
We construct an index to capture overconfidence or underconfidence in economic literacy for each respondent.

Experimental Design Details

Not available

Randomization Method

Randomisation by computer

Randomization Unit

The survey is made representative using quota variables (gender, population, and residential area). From this sample, participants are randomly assigned to the treatment groups.

Was the treatment clustered?