How Inflation Expectations Inform Spending

Last registered on October 07, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
How Inflation Expectations Inform Spending
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016834
Initial registration date
September 21, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
September 22, 2025, 6:58 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
October 07, 2025, 5:25 PM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Country
Switzerland
Region
Zurich

Primary Investigator

Name
Aline Scheurer
Affiliation
ETH Zurich
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Jan-Egbert Sturm
PI Affiliation
ETH Zurich
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2025-09-23
End date
2025-09-24
Keywords
Finance & Microfinance
Additional Keywords
Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Our study provides insight into how individuals perceive and respond to inflation, explaining the decision mechanisms that link inflation expectations to spending. We implement a large-scale experiment with a cohort of ETH Zurich students in a controlled laboratory setting. By identifying systematic patterns in how people think about inflation, we provide new insights into the individual decision dynamics that underpin the effectiveness of monetary policy.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Scheurer, Aline and Jan-Egbert Sturm. 2025. "How Inflation Expectations Inform Spending." AEA RCT Registry. October 07. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16834-1.1
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2025-09-23
Intervention End Date
2025-09-24

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
(1) Spending Adjustments/ Elasticities based on Inflation Expectations (2) Income Allocation (3) Reason for Adjustments
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
-Individual Risk Aversion
-Individual Intertemporal Preference
-Expected Stock Market Return
-Inflation History (National Origin)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Respondents answer survey questions in a controlled setting in the lecture hall. Each respondent receives the same survey, but expected inflation scenarios are randomized.
Experimental Design Details
Respondents are asked to allocate a fixed income across different spending categories. Each participant is randomly assigned to one of four groups, with each group presented a scenario featuring a different expected inflation level. This design allows us to examine how spending choices vary with inflation expectations and to explore the reasons behind these changes. In addition, we collect information on individual intertemporal preferences, risk perceptions, opportunity cost considerations, and exposure to national inflation histories.
Randomization Method
Randomization is done by a computer.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
No clustering.
Sample size: planned number of observations
1'000 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Treatment 1: 250 individuals, Treatment 2: 250 individuals, Treatment 3: 250 individuals, Treatment 4: 250 individuals
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
ETH Zurich Ethics Commission
IRB Approval Date
2025-09-16
IRB Approval Number
25 ETHICS-264
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials