Understanding citizens’ reactions to fiscal policy adjustments

Last registered on September 29, 2025

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Understanding citizens’ reactions to fiscal policy adjustments
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016878
Initial registration date
September 25, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
September 29, 2025, 10:56 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Affiliation
Halle Institute for Economic Research

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
Leipzig University
PI Affiliation
Halle Institute for Economic Research

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-09-26
End date
2026-06-30
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Structural changes in the economy require ongoing adjustments to fiscal policy to preserve fiscal space and maintain budgetary balance. However, such changes may be politically sensitive as citizens might perceive them as unfair and withdraw support for the governing political party. This study examines how individuals perceive the fairness of fiscal policy adjustments with potential spillovers to satisfaction with the overall tax system. To this end, we leverage a recent property tax reform in Germany mandated by the Federal Constitutional Court, which took effect in 2025.

The individual tax changes were unclear ex ante, as they were dependent on property value recalculations and local municipal rates. That allows us to compare individuals facing tax hikes versus cuts and test whether the direction or size of the change influences fairness perceptions. Our study will provide novel insights by analyzing both increases and decreases in taxes to uncover asymmetries due to loss aversion, while also evaluating the broader effects such as on satisfaction with the overall tax system and potential consequences for political preferences.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Jeworrek, Sabrina, Melina Ludolph and Lena Tonzer. 2025. "Understanding citizens’ reactions to fiscal policy adjustments." AEA RCT Registry. September 29. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16878-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2025-09-26
Intervention End Date
2025-10-10

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Perceived fairness of the property tax
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
General satisfaction with tax system; happiness
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We will conduct a randomized controlled trial (RCT) with a sample of 3,000 German individuals that own residential property. Participants will be randomly assigned to one of three groups survey groups: a control group and two treatment groups.

The first treatment group will receive detailed information about the property tax reform, followed by questions about their personal experience with the change to recollect their feelings after being confronted with the tax assessment notice. The second treatment group will receive the same information and questions, along with a brief explanation of how the tax revenues are used at the local level.

After these treatment interventions, we will measure participants’ perceptions of fairness regarding the property tax they have to pay as our main outcome variable. We also elicit participants’ general satisfaction with the tax system and their current level of happiness to evaluate the broader effects of fiscal adjustments.
Additionally, we will include post-treatment survey questions to collect detailed information on participants’ socio-demographic characteristics including living situation, personality traits, trust in institutions, and political attitudes.

We expect that sensitivity to the tax change varies with sociodemographic factors and personality traits. Comparing the control and the first treatment group, we hypothesize that the response to tax increases is moderated by locus of control, institutional trust and the length of ownership. Investigating the effects of information on how taxes are used, we hypothesize that having children, satisfaction with the local administration and regional identity will moderate the effects.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Survey software randomizes with a chance of 1/3 for each of the three groups.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
Not applicable.
Sample size: planned number of observations
3,000 individuals.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
1,000 individuals in each of the two treatment groups and the control group.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
GfeW Institutional Review Board
IRB Approval Date
2025-09-18
IRB Approval Number
iPaL5RTr