Public attitudes towards debt-financed government spending

Last registered on September 30, 2025

View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title

Public attitudes towards debt-financed government spending

RCT ID

AEARCTR-0016881

Initial registration date

September 25, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published

September 30, 2025, 7:01 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country

Germany

Region

Primary Investigator

Name

Lukas Endres

Affiliation

IMK

Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name

Jan Behringer

PI Affiliation

IMK

Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status

On going

Start date

2025-09-23

End date

2025-10-07

Keywords

Governance

Additional Keywords

government debt, political attitudes, survey experiment

JEL code(s)

D83, H60, H31

Secondary IDs

Prior work

This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.

Abstract

This project studies how individuals perceive debt-financed government spending and the factors shaping their support for it. We address three main questions: (i) What considerations and concerns do people raise when thinking about debt-financed spending? (ii) How do these concerns affect policy preferences? (iii) Are attitudes perspective-dependent, i.e. shaped by salient roles such as taxpayer or beneficiary of public goods?

To answer these questions, we conduct two large-scale online surveys with representative samples from Germany. In the first survey (N=4,000), we dedicate 1,000 respondents to elicit first-order concerns through open-ended questions about arguments for or against debt-financed government spending, followed by questions on policy preferences and voting relevance. This allows us to link salient concerns to stated support for debt-financed government spending.

In a follow-up survey (N=7,500), we establish causality by randomly exposing respondents to specific concerns, while respondents in the control group receive no information. We build directly on the insights from the first survey, as the treatments reflect the most salient concerns identified through respondents’ answers to the open-ended question about debt-financed government spending. We then measure all respondents’ attitudes towards debt-financed government spending, including behavioral measures, to identify whether exposure to specific concerns affects people’s policy stance.

Finally, in an experiment embedded within the first survey, we examine the perspective dependence of support for debt-financed government spending based on the remaining 3,000 respondents. A random subset of 2,000 respondents is primed to consider either the public goods they benefit from or the taxes they bear, using open-ended survey questions, while 1,000 respondents form a pure control group that does not answer any open-ended question. We then measure all respondents’ attitudes towards debt-financed government spending to examine the role of taxpayer and consumer perspectives.

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation

Behringer, Jan and Lukas Endres. 2025. "Public attitudes towards debt-financed government spending." AEA RCT Registry. September 30. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16881-1.0

Sponsors & Partners

Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)

Intervention (Hidden)

Intervention Start Date

2025-09-23

Intervention End Date

2025-10-07

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)

- Approval of debt-financed government spending (Survey 1 & Survey 2)
- Approval of debt-financed public investments (Survey 1 & Survey 2)
- Approval of debt-financed public consumption expenditures (Survey 1 & Survey 2)

Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)

- Importance of party position on debt-financed government spending for voting in federal election (Survey 1 & Survey 2)
- Willingness to sign petition in favor of or against debt-financed government spending (Survey 2 only)
- Main consideration mentioned regarding debt-financed government spending (Survey 2 only)

Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Survey 1 (N=4,000):
The first survey is conducted on a representative sample of 4,000 German adults and consists of two components.

1. Elicitation of first-order concerns (N=1,000):
A randomly selected subsample of 1,000 respondents does not participate in any experiment. Instead, they answer an open-ended question asking what arguments, in their view, speak for or against allowing the state to incur additional debt to finance public expenditure. They then report their policy preferences regarding debt-financed spending and the importance of the topic for their voting behavior. We use text analysis to identify the most prevalent concerns, which subsequently inform the treatments in Survey 2.

2. Perspective-priming experiment (N=3,000):
The remaining 3,000 respondents are randomly assigned to one of three groups (1,000 each): taxpayer priming, public goods priming, or pure control group. Treated respondents are asked to answer an open-ended question designed to make a specific perspective salient. In the taxpayer priming treatment, respondents describe taxes they personally find burdensome; in the public goods priming treatment, they describe public goods from which they personally benefit. The control group receives no such question. We encourage respondents to elaborate at length to increase salience. Afterwards, all groups answer the same set of questions about their preferences towards debt-financed government spending and its importance for their voting behavior.

Survey 2 (N=7,500):
The second survey is conducted on a representative sample of 7,500 German adults. Respondents are randomly assigned to different treatment groups and one control group. Each treatment group receives a brief information treatment presenting one of the most prevalent concerns about debt-financed government spending, as identified from the open-ended question on first-order concerns in Survey 1. The control group receives no information.
Afterwards, all respondents answer the same questions as in Survey 1 regarding policy preferences and voting relevance. We include two additional outcome measures: (i) willingness to sign a petition for or against debt-financed spending, and (ii) an open-ended question about the main consideration that comes to mind when thinking about debt-financed government spending.

Experimental Design Details

Randomization Method

Randomization was done by the survey institute.

Randomization Unit

individual

Was the treatment clustered?

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters

Survey 1: 4,000 individuals
Survey 2: 7,500 individuals

Sample size: planned number of observations

Survey 1: 4,000 individuals Survey 2: 7,500 individuals

Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms

Survey 1: Approximately 4,000 individuals, with around 1000 individuals in each treatment and control group
Survey 2: Approximately 7,500 individuals, with group sizes to be determined after completion of survey 1

Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)

Supporting Documents and Materials

IRB