Preferences and competing models (Follow-up Study 1)

Last registered on September 29, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Preferences and competing models (Follow-up Study 1)
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016882
Initial registration date
September 25, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
September 29, 2025, 11:01 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
ZHONGHENG QIAO
Affiliation
Purdue University
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-09-26
End date
2027-12-31
Keywords
Behavior, Lab
Additional Keywords
belief updating, competing models
JEL code(s)
D83, D90, D91
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This study serves as a follow-up to AEARCTR-0015136 (QIAO, ZHONGHENG. 2025. "Preferences and competing models." AEA RCT Registry. January 15. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.15136-1.0).

The original study, finished in early March 2025, classified participants into distinct behavioral types based on the decision rules they followed when weighting competing models and updating their beliefs. The original study further investigated the heterogeneous effect of biased preferences across participants of different behavioral types. This follow-up study examines whether providing participants with the correct Bayesian predictions from individual models affects which behavioral rules they adopt for model weighting and belief updating.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
QIAO, ZHONGHENG. 2025. "Preferences and competing models (Follow-up Study 1)." AEA RCT Registry. September 29. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16882-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
This is a laboratory experiment, conducted in a standard university experimental economics lab, recruiting students broadly across the university by email using ORSEE. This study serves as a follow-up to AEARCTR-0015136 and follows the core design of the original study.

The experiment consists of one block of individual belief updating tasks, a cognitive ability test, an overconfidence test, a risk elicitation task, and an unincentivized survey about real-world narratives. Subjects also complete a paid instructions comprehension quiz before beginning their session.
Intervention Start Date
2025-09-26
Intervention End Date
2027-12-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
First-order beliefs: In the experiments, I plan to elicit subjects' first-order beliefs about the true state of the world, after observing a signal.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Probabilistic reasoning ability
Risk attitudes
Overconfidence
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
This is a laboratory experiment, conducted in a standard university experimental economics lab, recruiting students broadly across the university by email using ORSEE. This study serves as a follow-up to AEARCTR-0015136 and follows the core design of the original study.

The experiment consists of one block of individual belief updating tasks, a cognitive ability test, an overconfidence test, a risk elicitation task, and an unincentivized survey about real-world narratives. Subjects also complete a paid instructions comprehension quiz before beginning their session.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization is done by computer (signal realizations)
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
80 subjects, each subject is a cluster.
Sample size: planned number of observations
I plan to collect data from up to 80 subjects. Each subject will make multiple decisions in the experiment.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
In each round, subjects observe a randomly drawn signal.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
The Purdue University Human Research Protection Program
IRB Approval Date
2024-12-12
IRB Approval Number
IRB-2024-1786
Analysis Plan