The effect of weather conditions on occupational choice

Last registered on October 06, 2025

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The effect of weather conditions on occupational choice
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016919
Initial registration date
October 01, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
October 06, 2025, 11:36 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
BIBB

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods
PI Affiliation
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
PI Affiliation
Maastricht University

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-10-06
End date
2025-10-20
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Occupational choices shape workers’ long-term earnings, well-being, and social standing, making them central to individual life trajectories and broader labor market dynamics. Workers select jobs by trading off wages and benefits against lost leisure time and expected hardships (Rosen, 1986; Maestas et al., 2023). Hardship of jobs refers to the dis-utility from job-related demands, encompassing both mental and physical strains (Lavetti, 2023). A job’s physical toll is shaped by the tasks involved, the technology used in production, and the varying conditions under which job tasks are performed. Job disamenities may thus vary over time, contributing to longer-term trends in labor supply and sectoral change (Kaplan and Schulhofer-Wohl, 2018). For many jobs, especially in construction, agriculture and some service sectors, working conditions vary substantially with outside weather conditions. Heat and cold days induce discomfort, health risks (e.g. Isen et al., 2017; Karlsson and Ziebarth, 2018; Carleton et al., 2022; Heutel et al., 2021; Barreca et al., 2016; Deschênes and Greenstone, 2011) and hampered productivity in exposed jobs (e.g., Deschenes, 2023; Kjellstrom et al., 2016). Accelerating global warming and climate change are increasing the frequency of extreme weather events, and, thus, global labor dis-utility, associated with substantial economic costs (Rode et al., 2022).

This discrete choice experiment aims to measure the importance of outdoor exposure to extreme weather in the job choice of German employees. By randomly informing survey participants about different scenarios of the potential increase in extreme weather events, we test in a subsequent discrete choice experiment whether and to what degree participants prefer indoor jobs over outdoor jobs.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Isphording, Ingo et al. 2025. "The effect of weather conditions on occupational choice." AEA RCT Registry. October 06. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16919-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
A discrete choice experiment (choice experiment) with preceding information treatment.

A sample of German employees from the age of 18 to 67 answer a questionnaire and a vignette describing hypothetical jobs. Previous to the conduct of the discrete choice (vignette) experiment, respondents are randomly exposed to two kinds of information: A positive prediction of the occurrence of extreme weather events and a negative prediction of the occurrence of extreme weather events. As a task, respondents then choose the job most attractive to them based on a number of job characteristics.
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2025-10-06
Intervention End Date
2025-10-20

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Our primary outcome is the binary choice regarding which of two hypothetical jobs a respondent would prefer if having to change the job.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
The two hypothetical jobs in each choice are characterized by six different features that describe the job, including Gross wage, work flexibility, hours worked, speed of work, autonomy of work and training opportunities. Our main focus is on an additional job characteristic: The “share of outdoor work”. We expect that this job characteristic negatively impacts on job choice for those individuals receiving an information.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Effect-heterogeneity concerning varying information of the predicted occurrence of extreme weather events.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
We randomly provide information to the respondents on how the number of hot days (> 30 degrees Celsius) changes until 2099. We have two control groups: an active control receives information on the current number of hot days in the past years (2001-2024), a pure control only receives unrelated information changes in wages and working hours.

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We conduct a discrete choice experiment with a preceding information treatment on the occurrence of prospective extreme weather events. In the information treatment, we present two different scenarios concerning the incidence of weather extremes: a treatment group receives information on how the number of hot days (> 30 degrees Celsius) changes until 2099. An active control receives information on the current number of hot days in the past years (2001-2024). A pure control only receives unrelated information changes in wages and working hours. All scenarios are taken from official sources and are publicly available for conformation.
In continuation, we present the respondents six pairs of potential jobs they can switch to. The jobs are identical in all but six job characteristics, including the share of outdoor work. The six other job characteristics have proven to be relevant for job choice in the literature (e.g. Maestas et al. 2023 or Eriksson and Kristensen 2014). These characteristics include gross wage, work flexibility, hours worked, autonomy of work and training opportunities.
First, the respondents receive an introduction to the topic of the survey experiment that includes a hypothetical situation in which they are need to change their job. Respondents are then asked to make a decision on the two jobs with different characteristics.
We aim to analyze the data from the trial by estimating mixed logit models and average marginal component effects (AMCE, see Bansak et al., 2021 and Hainmueller et al., 2014). Using our fully randomized conjoint design, we estimate linear regressions of our two primary outcomes on dummies for the different item values.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization is carried out by a computer-based randomization.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
3000
Sample size: planned number of observations
3000 individuals, leading to 18000 choices
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
1000
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

There is information in this trial unavailable to the public. Use the button below to request access.

Request Information

Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials