Independent media and political engagement in Kazakhstan

Last registered on April 29, 2026

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Independent media and political engagement in Kazakhstan
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016924
Initial registration date
April 29, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
April 29, 2026, 4:28 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
University of Toronto

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2026-03-02
End date
2026-09-30
Secondary IDs
GI-GR-3082 J-PAL
Prior work
This trial is based on or builds upon one or more prior RCTs.
Abstract
Independent media is widely regarded as a cornerstone for democratization, but citizens may respond in diverging ways. This study investigates how locally sourced, uncensored media information influences beliefs, attitudes, and political engagement within an autocratic context. In collaboration with an independent media organization in Kazakhstan, I conduct a field experiment in which individuals are randomly assigned to receive non-mainstream political information via a fact-checking service. The intervention lowers the cost of accessing independent information by delivering daily fact-checked messages via a dedicated channel on a popular social media platform. Evidence from the pilot study indicates that exposure to independent information leads individuals to update their beliefs about the country’s limited democratic practices and to express greater support for protesters. It increases polarization in their views of both the regime and the opposition, while reducing polarization regarding information control. The pilot results also reveal that, on average, exposure to independent information reduces political engagement, particularly among individuals with low prior support for democracy. The full study expands the sample size and further investigates the mechanisms of the effects of independent media exposure on political beliefs, attitudes and behavior, offering broader insights into the determinants of political engagement in environments where citizens face severe constraints on political activity, leaving protests as one of the few available outlets.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
OBrien, Dina. 2026. "Independent media and political engagement in Kazakhstan." AEA RCT Registry. April 29. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16924-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
The field experiment includes an intervention that isolates the effects of independent information in a setting with substantial amounts of disinformation. There are two treatment arms and one control arm. The control group is exposed to the general news, and the treatment groups receive the same information as the control group, plus independent media information. The treatment groups are split into two to investigate mechanisms. The treatment group's messages cover topics related to domestic politics, governance, accountability, and freedoms.
Intervention Start Date
2026-04-22
Intervention End Date
2026-06-02

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Media consumption, beliefs (about the state of democracy, economic outlook, importance of independent media), attitudes (toward government, protesters, opposition), and political behaviours.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Attitudinal polarization
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
A sample of 1,200 respondents is randomly chosen from the general population aged 18 and above in Kazakhstan who are not yet subscribed to the Factcheck service. Randomization is stratified on two variables: i) the main language of communication (Kazakh or Russian), and ii) preferences for democracy. Respondents are divided into one control and two treatment groups. The participants
are randomized into social media channels based on their chosen language and assigned arm.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Stratified randomization
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
0
Sample size: planned number of observations
1200 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
800 in treatment and 400 in control
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
University of Toronto Research Ethics Boards
IRB Approval Date
2025-09-12
IRB Approval Number
44982