Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample
design and clustering)
From the 2021 Census conducted in Ghana, in the Oti region there have been 21,788 births in the last 12 months (21,090 surviving children), that is 1,757 children each month. If we enroll all pregnant women in their last two trimesters, we expect to enroll 10,542 each month. We plan to follow up the newborns as well as women with children under 6 months. This would give us a sample of children up to 30 months, by the time of endline data collection (24 months after baseline). Given the total number of health facilities in the Oti region (256), we conservatively estimated a cluster size of 41 pregnant women per health facility cluster.
A first primary outcome of interest is the proportion of index children completing the full malaria vaccine sequence (aged 18 to 30 months at the time of endline). Assuming an average of 46% in the control group (MoH Ghana, 2022), a power level of 80%, an alpha of 5%, and an ICC 0.1 based on work by Levine et al. 2021, we estimate that we need 49 clusters per treatment arm to estimate a minimum detectable effect of 10 percentage points. Simprints’ baseline conducted in Oti in August 2024 confirmed a rate between 62.7% and 55.1% from the first dose to the last (fourth) dose of the malaria vaccines, requiring 47-49 clusters.
A second primary outcome of interest is the proportion of index children who complete the full routine vaccination schedule (aged 18 to 30 months at the time of endline). Assuming an average of 73% in the control group (DHS, 2022), we assume that our intervention increases completion of routine vaccination by 10 percentage points. We estimate we need 34 clusters per treatment arm. Simprints’ baseline conducted in Oti in August 2024 confirmed a rate of 22.7% for all antigens, 85.3% for basic antigens, and 62.1% for all vaccines in the national schedule. Up to 48 clusters will allow us to estimate a minimum detectable effect of 10 percentage points in all these outcomes.
We propose a sample size of about 100 clusters of close-by health facilities, randomly allocating 50 each for treatment and control. We expect to enroll 4100 pregnant women, plus 15% to account for attrition.