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Understanding Inflation Expectations by Information Types

Last registered on October 31, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Understanding Inflation Expectations by Information Types
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0017115
Initial registration date
October 29, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
October 31, 2025, 8:34 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Manuel Mosquera Tarrio
Affiliation
University of Manchester
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Angela Denis
PI Affiliation
Bank of Spain
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PI Name
Myroslav Pidkuyko
PI Affiliation
Bank of Spain
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PI Name
Marina Gómez-García
PI Affiliation
Bank of Spain
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-11-10
End date
2027-01-31
Keywords
Behavior, Finance & Microfinance, Other
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We use a randomised controlled trial to investigate how different types of information (generic vs. idiosyncratic) shape individuals' inflation expectations and expectations about the prices individuals pay for the goods and services they purchase. The project also examines how changes in expectations due to information treatments affect consumption and saving plans, as well as related macroeconomic expectations. It further studies cross-learning between types of information and inflation expectations, as well as expectations about the prices individuals pay for the goods and services they purchase.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Denis, Angela et al. 2025. "Understanding Inflation Expectations by Information Types." AEA RCT Registry. October 31. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17115-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2025-11-10
Intervention End Date
2027-01-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Inflation expectations.
Expectations about the prices individuals pay for the goods and services they purchase.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We study how different types of information can influence individuals' inflation expectations in a randomised controlled trial. We first elicit individuals' inflation expectations and expectations about the prices individuals pay for the goods and services they purchase. We then provide different types of information about inflation and prices. Finally, we study how these types of information affect individuals' beliefs, relative to those in control groups that receive no information or irrelevant information. The experiment will be done via an online survey for a convenience panel of the partner organisation, with quotas to maintain representativity of the population living in Spain, ages 25 to 64 years old.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomisation is done by a private contracting firm that implements the online survey.
Randomization Unit
Individual.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
No clusters.
Sample size: planned number of observations
At least 7200 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
At least 1800 individuals per treatment group
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
The University of Manchester
IRB Approval Date
2025-10-29
IRB Approval Number
2025-24012-44145
Analysis Plan