Abstract
The Ultra-Poor Graduation (UPG) programme has been rigorously evaluated over the years in different contexts, with strong evidence documenting its significant impacts on ultra-poor households’ economic outcomes (Bandiera et al., 2017; Banerjee et al., 2015, 2021). Several studies have shown that participation in the programme leads to increased income, productive asset ownership, and consumption, helping households escape extreme poverty through a multifaceted package of support. However, most of these existing studies focus on household- and individual-level effects. There remains a substantial evidence gap regarding the community-level impacts of such large-scale poverty reduction interventions, despite their potential to shape local labour markets, social structures, and norms.
Bandiera et al. (2017), using data from a large-scale randomised controlled trial in Bangladesh, find that the UPG programme successfully shifted ultra-poor women toward more productive income-generating activities. Ultra-poor women devoted more hours to livestock rearing, and fewer hours to agricultural labour, and maid services relative to their counterparts in the control villages. Near ultra-poor and non-eligible poor women from treatment villages also experienced higher wage rates in agricultural labour and maid services. These findings suggest that the UPG programme might affect community-level wage rates through shifting labour supply.
The proposed study aims to assess the community-level impacts of the UPG programme, with a primary focus on wage effects. It will also examine the relationship between community-level land inequality and wage rates. First, we will examine the impact of the UPG programme on wage rates at the community level. Second, we will investigate whether the relationship between land inequality within communities and local wage rates differs between communities with and without UPG programme exposure. Third, we will explore whether participation in the programme enhances women’s labour market agency, particularly their ability to negotiate and engage in wage employment. We will also investigate whether these effects vary in response to household-level shocks or natural shocks.