Perceptions of Relative Income Positions and Preferences for Redistribution

Last registered on October 31, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Perceptions of Relative Income Positions and Preferences for Redistribution
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0017134
Initial registration date
October 29, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
October 31, 2025, 8:33 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
October 31, 2025, 9:06 AM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Country
Japan
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Rui Fukuda
Affiliation
Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Rintaro Ando
PI Affiliation
Graduate School of Public Policy, University of Tokyo
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-10-31
End date
2026-06-30
Keywords
Behavior, Welfare
Additional Keywords
Misperceptions; Social position; Preferences for redistribution; Tax records; Survey experiment
JEL code(s)
D31, D63, D8, H20, H31
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
As demographic ageing intensifies fiscal pressures, understanding public preferences for redistribution is vital to sustaining social security systems and anticipating inequality—both in Japan and beyond.

This study investigates how individuals’ awareness of their relative income position influences their views on fairness, inequality, and redistribution. To address this question, we implement a randomised information intervention survey in collaboration with a Japanese municipality. The survey is linked to administrative tax records, allowing respondents to be informed of their actual income rank within local reference groups. Treated individuals receive information on their rank within demographic cohorts. This design builds on and extends the findings of Hvidberg et al. (2023), shifting the analytical focus from fairness perceptions to redistribution preferences.

The study has three main objectives. First, it examines the causal impact of positional information on attitudes towards redistribution, contributing to a re-evaluation of the Prospect of Upward Mobility (POUM) hypothesis by incorporating the role of misperceptions. Second, it documents the accuracy of income-related beliefs in Japan, including perceptions of (i) median income within reference groups, (ii) one’s own position within those groups, and (iii) expectations about future income. Third, a follow-up survey conducted several months later assesses the persistence of the intervention’s effects over time. Future income expectations are validated by linking survey responses to tax records in the subsequent year.

For details on the survey design, please refer to the Supporting Documents and Materials, available via the corresponding button. These include the Survey Design and Methodology document as well as participant-facing survey materials.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Ando, Rintaro and Rui Fukuda. 2025. "Perceptions of Relative Income Positions and Preferences for Redistribution." AEA RCT Registry. October 31. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17134-1.1
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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We conduct an online survey targeting residents of a Japanese municipality. As part of the survey, participants are randomly assigned to either a treatment or control group. The treatment group receives personalised information about their income rank within local reference groups, based upon their self-reported income. These ranks are calculated using administrative tax records. The control group does not receive any rank-related feedback.
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2025-10-31
Intervention End Date
2025-12-10

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Preferences for redistribution, including attitudes towards income taxation, government spending priorities, and fairness beliefs.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Primary outcomes are measured through two modules:

1-1. Redistribution Preferences
Policy preferences are measured through two questions.

First, income tax preferences are elicited using interactive sliders. Respondents assign preferred tax rates to four income groups: the top 1%, the next 9%, the next 40%, and the bottom 50%. The task is constrained by the current level of national tax revenue, with background statistics (e.g. GNI and tax revenue) used to ensure internal consistency.

Second, respondents are asked to allocate the government budget across seven categories: Defence and National Security, Public Infrastructure, Education (Pre-school to Secondary), Education (Post-secondary), Pensions and Social Welfare, Unemployment and Low-Income Support, and Healthcare and Long-Term Care. Respondents must allocate 100 percent of the budget across these categories.

1-2. Fairness Beliefs
Respondents indicate their agreement with normative statements about fairness and inequality using Likert-scale items. These beliefs are elicited in reference to income differences within their demographic reference group. Items include beliefs about the causes of income differences (effort vs. luck), views on the acceptability of current inequality, and attitudes toward the fairness of redistribution.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
In addition to evaluating treatment effects, one of the study’s objectives is to document baseline patterns in income-related beliefs and expectations in Japan. These outcomes are measured prior to the intervention and are not considered causal endpoints. They include accuracy and misperceptions in perceptions of median income, relative income position, and future income.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Secondary outcomes focus on the accuracy and misperceptions of income-related beliefs and expectations. These are measured through three modules:

2-1. Perceptions of Median Income
Respondents estimate the median income within their demographic reference group. These beliefs are compared to actual medians calculated from administrative tax records.

2-2. Perceptions of Relative Income Position
Respondents report their perceived income rank within their demographic reference group. These perceptions are compared to actual ranks based on tax data.

2-3. Future Income Expectations
Respondents report their expected income level and mobility in the future (in 2026). These expectations are validated using administrative tax records from the following year.

All of these modules use slider-based response formats. For further details on question design and implementation, please refer to the Survey Design and Methodology file.

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We conduct an online survey targeting residents of a Japanese municipality to examine income-related beliefs and preferences for redistribution. The survey embeds a randomised information intervention and is designed to document both causal effects and baseline misperceptions.

The target population comprises approximately 5,000 residents who (i) possess a 2025 municipal tax record that includes income data for the year 2024, (ii) were born between 1976 and 1980, and (iii) hold Japanese nationality. Each individual receives a personalised invitation letter containing a unique QR code, which links to a web-based questionnaire. Responses are collected exclusively online via a self-administered format.

Respondents are randomly assigned to either a control or treatment group. The treatment group receives personalised feedback on their income rank within the municipal income distribution, based on self-reported income and administrative tax records. Randomisation is implemented automatically via the survey platform.

The first wave of the survey begins with the dispatch of invitation letters on 30 October 2025. Respondents are initially asked to complete the questionnaire by 21 November. A reminder postcard is sent to non-respondents, and the final deadline for participation is 10 December 2025. A follow-up survey will be conducted approximately six to twelve months after the initial wave to assess the persistence of treatment effects. This second wave will target only those who completed the first survey.

For details on the randomisation procedure, survey instruments, and implementation protocols, please refer to the Survey Design document.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Respondents are randomly assigned to control and treatment groups by the Qualtrics platform.
Randomization Unit
Randomisation is conducted at the individual level.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
None (individual-level randomisation; no clustering)
Sample size: planned number of observations
Approximately 1,000 individuals (based on an expected response rate of ~20% from a target sample of approximately 5,000 residents)
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Approximately 500 individuals in the control group, 500 individuals in the treatment group.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials

Documents

Document Name
Survey materials
Document Type
survey_instrument
Document Description
Materials shown to participants, including invitation letter, questionnaire, and reminder postcard. Only the questionnaire is in Japanese; the other materials have been translated into English.
File
Survey materials

MD5: b9e12b8eb6f5bfcb2d629159bba51e99

SHA1: 1941b7a853bc585bb24547ef488fa1bd64e7727d

Uploaded At: October 29, 2025

Document Name
Survey design and methodology
Document Type
survey_instrument
Document Description
Overview of survey design, randomisation, sampling, and linkage to administrative tax data.
File
Survey design and methodology

MD5: 7724ee996a4a6ffbc06f18af1be20cb3

SHA1: 998f6b083925586e3d23566527b4e30817ea7bf8

Uploaded At: October 31, 2025

IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB of Institute of Social Science, University of Tokyo
IRB Approval Date
2025-07-17
IRB Approval Number
25-8
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials