The Impact of Microcredit for refugees

Last registered on November 10, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The Impact of Microcredit for refugees
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0017180
Initial registration date
November 04, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
November 10, 2025, 9:19 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Erin Kelley
Affiliation
UC Berkeley
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Sylvan Herskowitz
PI Affiliation
World Bank
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PI Name
Reshmaan Hussam
PI Affiliation
HBS
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PI Name
Gregory Lane
PI Affiliation
University of Chicago
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PI Name
Yue Hya Hsu
PI Affiliation
University of Chicago
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-11-19
End date
2027-02-01
Keywords
Finance & Microfinance
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Among the forcibly displaced are 26 million refugees, 60% of whom have been living in exile for more than five years (UNHCR, 2020). These prolonged situations call for sustainable solutions, such as creating livelihood opportunities that help refugees achieve self-reliance, integrate with host communities, and contribute to a vibrant economy. To support this, organizations have introduced various interventions, including providing financial services to refugees (UNHCR, 2020). Credit products are designed to reduce households’ exposure to risk and boost investments in income generating opportunities, which translate into direct investments in their host community. The goal of this work is to understand the material and psycho-social benefits of microcredit for refugees and host-communities.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Herskowitz, Sylvan et al. 2025. "The Impact of Microcredit for refugees ." AEA RCT Registry. November 10. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17180-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Applicants who are deemed eligible are randomized into two groups: a treatment and a
control group. This design enables a direct comparison between members who receive a loan
and those who do not, allowing us to estimate the impact of loan access. Participants in the
control group will not receive loans during the study. However, they will be informed that
they remain eligible and will be prioritized for loans once the study ends. This message will
be framed positively, by explaining that funds are only available for an initial round but will
be expanded in the future, and that approved and waitlisted participants will be first in line.
Participants in the treatment group will receive a loan of 1,000,000 UGX (approximately
280 USD), to be repaid over twelve months, at a monthly interest rate of 1.75%. Study
participants assigned to receive loans are notified and invited to our partner's local branch
to collect their loan. Payments are collected monthly and clients can repay at the
local branch office. Loan officers will follow our partner's
standard procedures for sending reminders and following up on late payments. Participants
will be informed that failing to repay their loan will make them ineligible for future loans
with our partner. Borrowers who successfully repay their loan will
receive an official letter from our partner documenting their credit history.
Intervention Start Date
2025-11-19
Intervention End Date
2026-06-01

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
We use survey data to measure the loan’s effects on debt, assets, business performance, and mental health. In addition, our partner will share administrative records on loan disbursement and repayment with the research team
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
We would like to collect a mesure of social cohesion, and the household's migration decisions.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Applicants who are deemed eligible are randomized into two groups: a treatment and a
control group. This design enables a direct comparison between members who receive a loan
and those who do not, allowing us to estimate the impact of loan access
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Participants will be enrolled on a rolling basis. To accommodate this, we will generate
a pre-randomized list in advance, containing unique study IDs and corresponding treatment
assignments
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
We will work with 600 individuals in the refugee camps and 600 individuals in the host communities
Sample size: planned number of observations
1200
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
1200 individuals (no clusters)
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Uganda National Council for Science and Technology
IRB Approval Date
2025-10-17
IRB Approval Number
SS4473ES
Analysis Plan