Misperceptions in Post-Conflict Societies and Support to Peace

Last registered on November 10, 2025

View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title

Misperceptions in Post-Conflict Societies and Support to Peace

RCT ID

AEARCTR-0017199

Initial registration date

November 06, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published

November 10, 2025, 9:49 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country

Colombia

Region

Primary Investigator

Name

Camilo Gomez

Affiliation

CERGE-EI

Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name

Michal Bauer

PI Affiliation

CERGE-EI and Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University

Contact Investigator

PI Name

Julie Chytilová

PI Affiliation

Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University and CERGE-EI

Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status

In development

Start date

2025-11-06

End date

2026-01-31

Keywords

Crime, Violence, & Conflict, Post-conflict

Additional Keywords

Information Provision; Misperceptions

JEL code(s)

Secondary IDs

Prior work

This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.

Abstract

This project aims to test an intervention that provides information to correct misperceptions to foster support for peaceful conflict resolution in post-conflict societies. The study will be conducted in Colombia, leveraging the implementation of the 2016 Peace Agreement and the ongoing negotiations with other armed groups. The intervention provides official and credible statistics showing a significant reduction in violence post-agreement period (2017-2024). A variation of the intervention will present the same information in a more engaging format to test whether the presentation style influences its effectiveness in terms of recall and willingness to share the information.

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation

Bauer, Michal, Julie Chytilová and Camilo Gomez. 2025. "Misperceptions in Post-Conflict Societies and Support to Peace." AEA RCT Registry. November 10. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17199-1.0

Sponsors & Partners

Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)

Intervention (Hidden)

Participants will be randomly assigned to one of three experimental conditions:
• Control condition: No information is presented.
• Information condition: Participants receive official statistical data about the evolution of violence in Colombia between 2009 and 2024.
• Information-engaging condition: Participants receive the same information as in the information condition through an interactive task.

Intervention Start Date

2025-11-06

Intervention End Date

2026-01-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)

Support for the previous peace agreement.
- Participants will be asked to decide how much of a bonus of 12 tokens they want to donate to an NGO that works on promoting the implementation of the 2016 Peace Agreement. This is a numerical variable ranging from [0, 12].
- Survey responses on support and views about the previous peace agreement. These will be measured on a 5-point Likert scale.
Support for future peace agreements.
- Participants will be asked whether they are willing to sign a petition supporting the current peace negotiations with armed groups. This is a dummy variable that takes a value of 1 if they decide to sign a petition.
- Survey response on support of future policies related to peace negotiations. This will be measured on a 5-point Likert scale.
Social behavior toward ex-combatants: This is a numerical variable in the [0, 50,000] COP range. This corresponds to the decision made by the participant in the Help-or-Harm Task. The default allocation is COP 25,000. Participants can adjust this amount within the [0, 50,000] range at no pecuniary cost or benefit to themselves.
Fear
- Expected prevalence of violence perpetrated by guerillas.
- Expected behavior of ex-combatants in the Help-or-Harm Task.

Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)

Willingness to share information. Participants will be asked about their willingness to share the information they are shown during the intervention. This is a dummy variable that takes a value of 1 if they decide to share the information.
Recalling information. Participants will be asked to recall statistical data presented in the intervention. This is a numerical variable with the number provided by participants recalling the statistical data from the intervention.

Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Participants will be randomly assigned to one of three between-subject conditions: control, information, or information-engaging.

For the HHT each participant will evaluate 3 profiles, following a within-subjects design. The first profile will be fixed (i.e., baseline ex-combatant), and the remaining two profiles will be presented in random order (i.e., has participated in transitional justice and has not participated in transitional justice).

Experimental Design Details

Randomization Method

The survey software will randomize the experimental condition at the individual level.

Randomization Unit

Unit of randomization is individual.

Was the treatment clustered?

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters

No cluster sampling

Sample size: planned number of observations

4,500 participants

Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms

Between-subject:
Control condition: 1,500 participants,
Information condition: 1,500 participants,
Information-Engaging condition: 1,500 participants.

Within-subject:
Baseline Ex-combatant: 4,500
Ex-combatant who appeared before the transitional justice: 4,500
Ex-combatant who did not appear before the transitional justice: 4,500

Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)

Supporting Documents and Materials

IRB