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Field
Last Published
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Before
November 19, 2025 01:47 PM
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After
February 19, 2026 12:59 PM
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Field
Primary Outcomes (Explanation)
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Before
These outcomes capture the core mechanisms of interest: trading behavior reveals how participants act on information, while the accuracy and convergence of beliefs measure the extent to which information—especially the consensus price signal—is effectively processed and aggregated.
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After
These outcomes capture the core mechanisms of interest: trading behavior reveals how participants act on information, while the accuracy and convergence of beliefs measure the extent to which information—especially the consensus price signal—is effectively processed and aggregated.
We will be testing the hypothesis of naive behavior of subjects. According to this hypothesis, which serves as a benchmark, given the difficulty of the experimental task, we expect subject not to place their prices strategically, but rather place them based on the expected value of the asset. Importantly, under this assumptoin, we should expect fully revealing behavior from subjects.
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Field
Secondary Outcomes (Explanation)
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Before
This outcome isolates the causal effect of exposure to consensus price signals on participants’ belief revision, providing direct evidence on how aggregated market information shapes individual expectations.
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After
This outcome isolates the causal effect of exposure to consensus price signals on participants’ belief revision, providing direct evidence on how aggregated market information shapes individual expectations.
Additionally, we will study whether subjects give more importance to the price of their partner or to the consensus price.
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