Improving Tax Administration in Weak States: Evidence from the DR Congo

Last registered on December 26, 2025

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Improving Tax Administration in Weak States: Evidence from the DR Congo
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0017355
Initial registration date
December 10, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
December 26, 2025, 1:56 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Affiliation
UC Berkeley

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
University of Zurich
PI Affiliation
UC Berkeley
PI Affiliation
UCL
PI Affiliation
World Bank
PI Affiliation
UC Davis

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2025-08-01
End date
2026-07-31
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This project investigates four key levers of tax administration in a large-scale field experiment embedded in the 2025 property tax campaign in Kananga, D.R. Congo. First, we investigate the cost-effectiveness of in-person collection, a widely used approach in low-income countries that likely boosts compliance but is administratively costly and opens scope for corruption. Bill delivery occurs everywhere, but half of neighborhoods do not receive follow-up in-person collection visits; owners there must pay via other payment modalities. Second, we examine the introduction of mobile money tax payments. Exploiting the first-ever rollout of this payment option in Kananga, we provide information and instructions on paying taxes via mobile money to a random sample of property owners. Third, we test whether paying in installments can raise compliance and revenue, and to what extent this varies by access to mobile money payment. Finally, we cross-randomize a high-frequency personalized deterrence SMS treatment. We assess how these four levers shape compliance, revenue, and the cost-effectiveness of tax collection.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Danner, Sarah et al. 2025. "Improving Tax Administration in Weak States: Evidence from the DR Congo." AEA RCT Registry. December 26. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17355-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2025-08-01
Intervention End Date
2026-07-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Primary outcomes, measured in administrative records, include:
1. Tax compliance (any payment and complete payment)
2. Tax revenue (in levels, using Poisson regression, and logs)
3. Cost-effectiveness
We will also examine how the treatments shape the payment channel used (mobile money vs. cash). Cost-effectiveness is assessed based on the cost data detailed in the full PAP. We plan to study heterogeneity by
property value, compliance history, neighborhood and collector characteristics, and baseline perceptions of the government.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
In many low-income countries, tax inspectors collect payments in person. This approach reduces transaction costs for taxpayers and may enhance willingness to pay taxes by strengthening tax morale or increasing the perceived risk of enforcement. However, it is administratively costly and creates opportunities for corruption. We explore these tradeoffs by experimentally assessing the cost-effectiveness of in-person tax collection in the context of a large-scale property taxation campaign in the D.R. Congo. All neighborhoods receive tax bills, but only half of them receive follow-up tax collection visits in which they can pay directly to tax inspectors. Property owners in all neighborhoods can pay at the bank or the tax authority.

Moreover, in the same tax campaign, taxpayers are for the first time able to pay via mobile money. Recent evidence from other sectors suggests that digitization can reduce leakage, improve accountability, and lower transaction costs (Muralidharan et al., 2016; Dodge et al., 2023). Mobile money, in particular, has emerged as a scalable tool for delivering transfers and payments in low-infrastructure environments (Suri and Jack, 2016; Suri, 2017). We exploit the novelty of this payment modality in Kananga and randomly provide information about mobile money payments at the property level. Our design allows us to compare mobile money with in-person collection, evaluating their impacts on compliance, revenue, and cost-effectiveness.

We explore two additional classic levers of tax administrators.

First, it is well known that compliance with the property tax — a bulky annual payment — is often constrained by liquidity constraints (Brockmeyer et al., 2023; Wong, 2020). Such constraints are even more likely to bind and hold down tax compliance in low-income countries (Bergeron et al., 2024). We therefore randomly provide property owners with the option to pay their property tax liability in installments. This intervention can increase compliance without increasing revenue if taxpayers only pay one installment (and thus essentially receive a discount). We thus expect limited effectiveness among owners who don’t receive information about mobile money. However, we expect that property owners with the option to pay via mobile money with installments will increase compliance by a large enough amount to also increase revenue.

Second, we implement a high-frequency personalized deterrence SMS treatment. We are not interested in horse-racing an enforcement message versus a public goods message like many past studies.
Rather, we constructed a single bundled treatment that, based on our reading of the literature, we expect to have the large possible impact on compliance (for a message treatment). The treatment includes a series of personalized SMS messages focused on deterrence messaging: reminders about penalties and other enforcement actions. We are interested in the interactions this intervention has with our other treatments. In particular, we expect this treatment to boost the cost-effectiveness of the mobile money payment option. We also expect it to have a positive interaction effect with installments.

Each of these interventions is embedded in a large-scale property tax campaign run by the Kasaï-Central provincial tax authority. The different interventions are fully cross-randomized, enabling us to identify the most cost-effective bundle of interventions in such a setting.

With this experimental design, we hope to answer the following questions.

First, is in-person collection cost-effective? How does its cost-effectiveness vary geographically and along the property value distribution? Despite the fact that in-person tax collection was used in virtually every society historically and remains common in many low-income societies today, we know of no well-identified evidence on its cost-effectiveness. Our study will bring evidence to bear on this question in a real-world policy experiment.

Second, can low-capacity tax administrations use digital payment systems such as mobile money as substitutes for, or complements to, in-person tax collection? Despite the prevalence of mobile payment
technologies in low-income countries — and a growing literature on the use of technology by tax administrations at various stages of the collection pipeline1(Okunogbe and Tourek, 2024; Dzansi et al.,
2022; Mascagni et al., 2021; Das et al., 2023; Okunogbe, 2021) — little is known about whether, and how, digital payment technologies can be deployed effectively in contexts where compliance depends heavily on in-person collection. Apeti and Edoh (2023) examines mobile money as a tax payment modality, offering cross-country evidence that mobile money adoption is associated with higher tax revenues — particularly from direct taxes and especially in lower-capacity tax environments. However,
we know of no causally identified micro-level evidence on the impact of mobile money on tax compliance.

Third, how can mobile money be combined with other policy instruments — options to pay in installments and/or personalized high-frequency deterrence messaging — to maximize compliance and
cost-effectiveness? A growing wave of empirical studies on the public finance in developing countries focus on tax administration (Jensen and Weigel, 2025). We contribute by investigating a series of policy levers — in-person collection v. mobile payment, installments — and their interactions that have yet to be experimentally studied in the empirical PF-Dev literature.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization is done by a computer.
Randomization Unit
Individual treatments were randomly assigned within delivery zones and property value bands. The facilitation treatment was randomly assigned at the delivery zone level within strata.
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
1,359 delivery zones
Sample size: planned number of observations
48,450 tax-assessable and non-exempted properties
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
In-person Tax Collection: N= 23,114
Mobile Money Information: N= 17,871
Installments: N= 8,386
High-Frequency Personalized Deterrence SMS: N=17,807
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Committee for Protection of Human Subjects (CPHS) at UC Berkeley
IRB Approval Date
2024-02-14
IRB Approval Number
#2023-10-16862
Analysis Plan

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