The signaling effects of fiscal policies

Last registered on March 05, 2026
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The signaling effects of fiscal policies
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0017359
Initial registration date
February 25, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
March 05, 2026, 6:12 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Penghui Yin
Affiliation
Central University of Finance and Economics
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2025-11-01
End date
2026-01-31
Keywords
Behavior, Other
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We study the information channel of fiscal announcements. We provide three different information treatments to indicate different fiscal policies. We find heterogeneous informational effects matter when fiscal stimulus is announced together with different financing method.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Yin, Penghui. 2026. "The signaling effects of fiscal policies." AEA RCT Registry. March 05. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17359-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We provide three hypothetical scenarios randomly: (1) fiscal stimulus plan in military and land security, (2) fiscal stimulus plan in military and land security with a debt-financing method, and (3) fiscal stimulus plan in military and land security with a revenue-financing method.
Intervention (Hidden)
 3 treatments:
1. Today the government published an administrative bulletin regarding the Fiscal Policy Package 2025. Official summaries report that the law directs roughly $150 billion of additional funding for defense programs (including shipbuilding, munitions, and certain new defense systems) and also provides large new funding for border and immigration enforcement programs (barriers, Customs and Border Protection improvements, additional Border Patrol/CBP staffing and detention capacity).
2. Today the government published an administrative bulletin regarding the Fiscal Policy Package 2025. Official summaries report that the law directs roughly $150 billion of additional funding for defense programs (including shipbuilding, munitions, and certain new defense systems) and also provides large new funding for border and immigration enforcement programs (barriers, Customs and Border Protection improvements, additional Border Patrol/CBP staffing and detention capacity). The bulletin also states that the measure increases the statutory federal debt limit by $5 trillion, providing the borrowing authority to finance enacted obligations.
3. Today the government published an administrative bulletin regarding the Fiscal Policy Package 2025. Official summaries report that the law directs roughly $150 billion of additional funding for defense programs (including shipbuilding, munitions, and certain new defense systems) and also provides large new funding for border and immigration enforcement programs (barriers, Customs and Border Protection improvements, additional Border Patrol/CBP staffing and detention capacity). The bulletin also states that the measure includes increasing the federal taxes or fees.
Intervention Start Date
2025-11-01
Intervention End Date
2025-11-03

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The announcement of a fiscal stimulus plan together with debt ceiling has information effect on the expectation of GDP growth and recession likelihood.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We provide three hypothetical scenarios randomly: (1) fiscal stimulus plan in military and land security, (2) fiscal stimulus plan in military and land security with an increase in debt, and (3) fiscal stimulus plan in military and land security with an increase in taxes.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
by a computer
Randomization Unit
individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
1
Sample size: planned number of observations
2000
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
4
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials