Evaluating the Impact of Free Solar Panel Installations on Grid-Connected, Low-Income, Households in Punjab, Pakistan

Last registered on December 09, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Evaluating the Impact of Free Solar Panel Installations on Grid-Connected, Low-Income, Households in Punjab, Pakistan
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0017379
Initial registration date
December 05, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
December 09, 2025, 7:47 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Pakistan
Region
Punjab

Primary Investigator

Name
Ayesha Ali
Affiliation
Lahore University of Management Sciences
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Robyn Meeks
PI Affiliation
Duke University
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Husnain Ahmad
PI Affiliation
Trinity University
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Zhenxuan Wang
PI Affiliation
North Carolina State University
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PI Name
Javed Younas
PI Affiliation
American University of Sharjah
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2025-07-01
End date
2027-12-31
Keywords
Environment & Energy
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
In many settings, electricity is subsidized, particularly with subsidies aimed at ensuring the poorest households have access to some low quantity of electricity services. How to deliver such subsidies cost-effectively, particularly in contexts in which utilities also struggle with electricity theft and bill non-payment, is an open question. This proposed project will evaluate a government initiative in Punjab, Pakistan to expand energy access among low-income households that are already grid-connected. Under the “Chief Minister (CM) Punjab Free Solar Panel” scheme, the Punjab Power Development Company Ltd, will provide free rooftop solar panels to 100,000 households that have historically consumed less than 200 kWh of electricity per month. Consumption at or under 200 kWh is low, covering basic needs, and therefore is the current cutoff for the lifeline electricity tariff. This initiative is set against a backdrop of acute energy shortages in Pakistan, soaring grid electricity prices, and the rapid decline in solar photovoltaic costs, which together have catalyzed a broader transition to renewable energy in Pakistan.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Ahmad, Husnain et al. 2025. "Evaluating the Impact of Free Solar Panel Installations on Grid-Connected, Low-Income, Households in Punjab, Pakistan." AEA RCT Registry. December 09. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17379-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Free solar panel installations for low-income grid connected households. Installation include 550W or 1100W panels and inverters.
Intervention Start Date
2025-07-01
Intervention End Date
2025-12-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Grid electricity consumption, monthly in kwh; Solar electricity consumption, monthly in kwh
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Our evaluation leverages a randomized controlled trial (RCT) design, using a computerized lottery-based allocation of
free solar panels under the “CM Punjab Free Solar Panel” program to establish causal effects on
household energy consumption and broader socio-economic outcomes. The program was open to low-income, grid-connected households consuming less than 200 units per month (using June 2024 billed units as the reference month). The program was announced in May 2024 and applications opened in December 2024. Households could apply via an online portal or by sending an SMS to an official number to be included in the lottery pool till Jan 5, 2025. To be eligible the applicants must submit basic documentation such as their electricity bill and national identity card, and must have consumed less than 200 units in June 2024. A computerized lottery (officially termed as balloting) was conducted on the eligible applicant pool on March 3 2025 to randomly select 94,483 winners across the province. Districts (n=37) were allocated a lottery quota for 550W and 1100 W systems on the basis of their share of eligible consumers (using Punjab’s entire consumer base of all residential consumers with consumption between 0-100 and 101- 200 units, as of June 2024). Following physical verification of the winning households, installation commenced in July 2025 and is expected to be completed by December 2025. Installation is being carried out by private contractors selected using a bidding process completed in December 2024. Each installed unit will be verified by a third party consultant. Households consuming less than 100 units will receive 550 W panels and those consuming between 101-200 units will receive 1100 W panels.

Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Public lottery conducted by the provincial government on a pool of eligible applicants
Randomization Unit
Individual household
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
NA
Sample size: planned number of observations
3000 for both grid and solar electricity consumption; and 361,074 for grid electricity consumption only
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
1500 treated and 1500 control for both grid and solar electricity consumption; and 94,483 treated and 266,591 for grid electricity consumption only.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Lahore University Management Sciences
IRB Approval Date
2025-02-28
IRB Approval Number
LUMS-IRB-0368/03192025/AAR-FWA-00030383
IRB Name
Duke University
IRB Approval Date
2025-09-19
IRB Approval Number
2026-0065
IRB Name
American University of Sharjah
IRB Approval Date
2025-09-15
IRB Approval Number
25-113
IRB Name
NC State
IRB Approval Date
2025-11-18
IRB Approval Number
28723
IRB Name
Trinity University (ceded to Duke)
IRB Approval Date
2025-11-14
IRB Approval Number
N/A
Analysis Plan