Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample
design and clustering)
For monthly household energy consumption (kWh), the minimum detectable effect is approximately 0.09 standard deviations with 80% power at the 5% significance level, comparing each treatment arm (250 households) to the control group (2,250 households)
Unit = kWh (The unit is based on official IESCO administrative billing records, measuring the total active energy consumed by the household over a 30-day billing cycle.).
Standard Deviation = 0.60 (A reference value of 0.60 is used for the Coefficient of Variation. This accounts for the high load diversity expected in Islamabad during winter months (January–March). In Islamabad in winters, electricity consumption variance is driven by heterogeneous heating habits (Inverter ACs vs. Gas) and the use of electric water geysers.)
Percentage = 5.6 % (the study can statistically prove any average saving of 5.6% or greater. Reached by multiplying the adjusted MDE of 0.0935 by the assumed Coefficient of Variation of 0.60, representing the smallest average group-level reduction that can be statistically distinguished from grid noise.)