The Political Economy of Progressive Air Travel Taxation

Last registered on February 10, 2026

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The Political Economy of Progressive Air Travel Taxation
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0017438
Initial registration date
December 10, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
February 10, 2026, 11:34 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Affiliation
RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research, Ruhr University Bochum
PI Affiliation
TU Dortmund University

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-12-11
End date
2027-12-31
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Negative externalities such as those generated by air travel are typically addressed through linear Pigouvian taxes, yet these instruments are often set below optimal levels, face low public acceptability, and generate fairness concerns. Nonlinear progressive externality taxes, such as frequent flying levies, in which the marginal tax rate increases with the level of externality-generating activity, may improve both efficiency and political support. In this study, we examine public support for the linear versus progressive taxation of flights using a survey experiment with 9,000 participants from the general population in the United States, Germany, and Spain. In an information treatment, we provide respondents with information on the distribution of flights in their respective country and their position within them. We then examine the effects of this information on support for progressive taxation as well as its perceived fairness. We also study how these responses vary according to individuals' accuracy in estimating their flight consumption rank, as well as the direction of their potential misperceptions. To contrast progressive designs with alternative nonlinear schemes, we repeat this experimental design using a regressive tax schedule.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Andor, Mark A., Michael Kramm and Leonie Matejko. 2026. "The Political Economy of Progressive Air Travel Taxation." AEA RCT Registry. February 10. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17438-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
See PAP
Intervention Start Date
2025-12-11
Intervention End Date
2026-01-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Policy preferences for nonlinear vs. linear taxation, perceived fairness of nonlinear vs. linear taxation
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
See PAP

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
In this study, we examine public support for linear versus nonlinear taxation of air travel using a survey experiment among a general population sample of 9,000 respondents from the United States, Germany, and Spain. Respondents are randomly assigned to one of four experimental conditions that vary along two dimensions: the type of nonlinear taxation (progressive or regressive) and whether respondents receive information about the distribution of annual flights in their country and their own position within that distribution. The information treatment is identical across progressive and regressive conditions.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization by the survey institute commissioned to conduct the survey
Randomization Unit
Individuals (respondents)
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
9,000 individuals (3,000 each from the US, Germany and Spain)
Sample size: planned number of observations
9,000 individuals (3,000 each from the US, Germany and Spain)
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
2,250 per treatment in the full sample, 750 per treatment each in the US, Germany and Spain
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
See PAP
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
German Association for Experimental Economic Research e.V.
IRB Approval Date
2025-11-26
IRB Approval Number
4j1KgCr5
Analysis Plan

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