Climate Forecasting, Adaptation, and Legitimacy

Last registered on January 06, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Climate Forecasting, Adaptation, and Legitimacy
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0017480
Initial registration date
December 22, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 06, 2026, 7:09 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Julian Dyer
Affiliation
University of Toronto
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Dennis Ochieng
PI Affiliation
University of Nairobi
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PI Name
Ellen Dyer
PI Affiliation
University of Oxford
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PI Name
Dalmas Omia
PI Affiliation
University of Nairobi
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-01-05
End date
2026-08-31
Keywords
Crime, Violence, & Conflict, Environment & Energy, Other
Additional Keywords
Climate change, climate adaptation, climate information, pastoralism.
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This project will explore whether seasonal forecasts enable pastoralists to cope
with long dry seasons in Turkana, Northern Kenya. This is a timely concern as the
long dry season in East Africa is projected to become longer in a warming climate.
(Wainwright et al., 2021) We will
achieve this using an experimental evaluation of a feasibly scalable intervention
co-created with local stakeholders and policymakers. Our project will test whether
information reached households, whether it changed beliefs and desired actions, and
finally whether it improved livelihoods and reduced losses and conflict.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Dyer, Julian et al. 2026. "Climate Forecasting, Adaptation, and Legitimacy." AEA RCT Registry. January 06. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17480-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Culturally-appropriate climate information deliverd door-to-door by local volunteers.
Intervention Start Date
2026-02-10
Intervention End Date
2026-07-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
1) Receipt of trusted, understandable, timely climate information.
2) Climate expectations shifting closer to forecasts, increase in confidence in expectations.
3) Desired coping / adaptation outcomes.
4) Actual Coping Actions
5) Actual Livelihoods & Hardship
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Cluster-randomized intervention delivering climate information directly to households. Unit of randomization is the village. We sample 8-10 households per village.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Computer stratified randomization.
Randomization Unit
Village.
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
120
Sample size: planned number of observations
1200
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
40 villages pure treatment, 40 villages conventional treatment, 40 villages hybrid treatment.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
See Pre-Analysis Plan.
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
University of Exeter Business School Research Ethics Committee (UoEBS-REC)
IRB Approval Date
2025-09-09
IRB Approval Number
9811982
Analysis Plan

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