Virtual Energy Networks for Distribution Constraints: Experimental Evidence from Peer-to-Peer Trading to Soak Up Midday Solar

Last registered on December 26, 2025

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Virtual Energy Networks for Distribution Constraints: Experimental Evidence from Peer-to-Peer Trading to Soak Up Midday Solar
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0017484
Initial registration date
December 16, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
December 26, 2025, 2:36 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

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Primary Investigator

Affiliation
University of Calgary

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
Deakin University
PI Affiliation
University of Queensland

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2025-05-20
End date
2026-06-30
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Peer-to-peer energy trading—often implemented through virtual energy networks (VENs)—has expanded in Australia, the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, and Japan as rooftop solar adoption accelerates and retail customers seek greater control over their energy use. While P2P trading is frequently promoted as a way for households to arbitrage price gaps between retail prices and feed-in-tariffs, in high-solar contexts such as Australia it also has the potential to serve an important network function: absorbing excess daytime solar generation to reduce reverse power flows, voltage rise, and curtailment at the distribution level. We partner with an established VEN platform to group participating households into “virtual transformers,” each containing a mix of solar and non-solar homes.We randomize into treatment and control groups and virtual transformers. Treated clusters are assigned default trades in which solar producers sell to off-takers at a price between the retail rate and feed-in tariff, effectively splitting the gains from trade generated by that price gap. Control clusters remain in a baseline condition—active on the platform but not engaged in trading—before receiving the intervention at a later date. We also layer dynamic, event-day incentives onto the treated clusters by subsidizing daytime electricity to near zero on forecast high-solar days, enabling us to assess whether stronger, time-targeted incentives further increase local solar absorption and ease distribution-network constraints. Finally, we combine the experimentally estimated demand elasticities with engineering models of distribution networks to quantify how increased daytime load shifting would affect hosting capacity, reverse-flow frequency, and the long-run need for transformer and feeder upgrades.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
La Nauze, Andrea, Flavio Menezes and Erica Myers. 2025. "Virtual Energy Networks for Distribution Constraints: Experimental Evidence from Peer-to-Peer Trading to Soak Up Midday Solar." AEA RCT Registry. December 26. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17484-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
The study evaluates a peer-to-peer (P2P) electricity trading intervention implemented through an existing Virtual Energy Network (VEN) platform. Participating households include electricity off-takers (primarily non-solar households) and solar producers with rooftop photovoltaic systems. Participants are grouped into geographically proximate “virtual transformers,” each containing a mix of solar and non-solar households intended to mimic local distribution-level constraints.

The core intervention enables default P2P electricity trades within each virtual transformer. For treated participants, electricity demand from off-takers is first matched to local solar generation from designated producers within the same virtual transformer, following a predetermined hierarchy of primary, secondary, and tertiary trading partners. Trading prices are set between the prevailing retail electricity rate and the feed-in tariff, splitting the arbitrageable surplus evenly between buyers and sellers. Any residual demand or excess supply not met within the virtual transformer is cleared through the platform’s existing state-level “community trading” mechanism or through the standard retail market.

In addition to baseline P2P trading, the intervention includes time-targeted event-day incentives. Event days were determined using historical irradiance data. For each virtual transformer, we identified an irradiance threshold—typically around the 80th percentile—such that the expected number of high-solar days was 5 per month. A day-ahead irradiance forecast triggered an event day whenever all participant locations within a virtual transformer were predicted to exceed that transformer-specific threshold. Text messages were sent out the evening before indicating event days.

Control participants remain active on the platform but do not engage in P2P trading during an initial baseline period, after which they receive access to the same trading intervention.
Intervention Start Date
2025-08-12
Intervention End Date
2026-03-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Hourly electricity demand for off-takers, Hourly electricity supply / exports from solar producers
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
The primary analysis population consists of off-taker households. Outcomes are measured using high-frequency (hourly) electricity consumption and export data over the study period. We will estimate the average effect of P2P trading on electricity demand and solar exports, as well as heterogeneity by household technology (e.g., batteries, EVs), baseline consumption profiles, residential vs. small business, and event versus non-event days.

For supplier outcomes we will estimate heterogeneity by battery ownership and heterogeneity by system size or inverter limits


Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Persistence in Responsiveness to Event Days (next-day / next-week spillovers), Default Trades vs. Organic Trades on the Platform (Correlations with engagement and prices of non-default trades including system size, weather, make up of virtual transformer), Net export (reverse power flow) at the virtual transformer level (Hourly net export, 95th/99th percentile export during solar peak, probability net export exceeds a threshold (proxy for constraint), Implied increase in hosting capacity (modeled using experimentally estimated elasticities + engineering simulations), change in required distribution upgrades (reduced need for transformer upgrades)

Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The study uses a randomized controlled trial with clustered treatment assignment. Households are first randomly assigned at the participant level to either treatment or control status, with stratification by battery ownership, geographic location, and timing of enrollment. Following this assignment, participants are grouped into geographically proximate “virtual transformers,” with stratification to ensure a mix of solar producers and off-takers and adequate trading capacity within each cluster.

Treatment is clustered at the virtual-transformer level. Treated clusters begin P2P trading after a one-month baseline period, while control clusters remain in a baseline condition—visible on the platform but not engaging in trading—for approximately four months before crossing over into treatment. To maintain functional trading groups, a small number of solar producers may be reassigned across virtual transformers when initial groupings lack sufficient counterparties; these adjustments do not affect the treatment assignment of off-taker households.

Within treated virtual transformers, default trading relationships are established using a predetermined hierarchy that assigns each off-taker to one or more solar producers. Prices for each trading pair are fixed according to the intervention rules and do not vary endogenously within the experiment. Event-day incentives are layered onto the treated clusters during the treatment period and are triggered based on transformer-specific irradiance thresholds derived from historical data and day-ahead forecasts.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization was conducted by the research team using a computer-generated random number process.
Randomization Unit
Participant-level randomization with cluster-level implementation
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
34 virtual transformers
Sample size: planned number of observations
24 hours x 300 participants x 182 days
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
17 treatment clusters and 17 control clusters
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Low Negligible Risk Subcommittee, Faculty of Business, Economics, and Law, University of Queensland
IRB Approval Date
2025-04-30
IRB Approval Number
2025/HE000041