Transmission - Investment Task

2025-12-20

2025-12-23

(i) the respondent’s belief about the message originator’s prediction about the state of the
world;
(ii) the respondent’s belief about the originator’s uncertainty, as measured on a scale ranging
from 0 (extremely uncertain) to 100 (extremely certain).
(iii) We will examine the transcripts of transmitted messages. Using a large language model
(such as GPT-5-2) we will classify each transcript according to whether it contains explicit
statements about the original message’s level prediction and the original message’s
uncertainty.
(iv) Participants then allocate a total of $100 across three state-contingent assets tied to the
earnings outcome: (i) earnings at least 2% above expectations, (ii) earnings at least 2%
below expectations, or (iii) earnings within ±2% of expectations. Allocations must sum to
$100 and can be distributed freely across assets. After the earnings announcement (Q1
2026), only the asset corresponding to the realized outcome pays off, yielding $2 per $1
invested; the other assets pay zero. Our outcome here is the amount allocated to bucket (i)
minus the amount allocated to bucket (ii); we examine the mean of this outcome across the
4 level x certainty quadrants in our original scripts, controlling for prior beliefs about the
company’s earnings performance.

The full experiment comprises two separate data collections that build on each other, a
transmitter experiment and a listener experiment. The two experimental collections rely on
different respondent samples.

Transmitter experiment:
Participants listen to two short recordings played consecutively and without a break, each
one of an opinion piece providing a qualitative narrative about whether earnings
performance of a company is higher or lower than expected. Then, they record their own
summary of these recordings, separately for the first and second company.
A randomly chosen 50% of transmitters will be asked their prior belief about each variable
before hearing the recordings, and all transmitters will be asked for the beliefs
described above after recording their transmitted message for each company.

Recording treatment arms:
Within each company, we randomize three key features of the original recordings:
Level of variable: We randomize whether the piece argues for higher than expected or lower
than expected earnings.

Uncertainty of message: Second, we randomize the uncertainty of the original message. We
randomly assign respondents to original opinions that either argue that earnings will certainly
be higher (or lower) than expected, or that earnings will probably be higher (or lower) than
expected but that things could go either way.

Randomization is stratified: each transmitter hears two recordings, one with a “higher” and
one with a “lower,” one with “high uncertainty” and one with “low uncertainty”.

Randomization done in office by a computer

Individual

No

In the transmitter experiment, we plan to collect 300 completes.
In the listener experiment, we plan to collect 1200 respondents.

In the transmitter experiment, we plan to collect 300 completes. In the listener experiment, we plan to collect 1200 respondents.

See analysis plan.

Pre-analysis plan investment task